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Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra

Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 16)

Fair result

Independiente

2–1

Deportivo Riestra

1.0Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Independiente would usually take 1.0 points and Deportivo Riestra 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Independiente.

Independiente +2.0 pts vs chancesDeportivo Riestra −1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Independiente

Deportivo Riestra

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

51%

Possession

49%

The match between Independiente and Deportivo Riestra ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Independiente win with 49% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente to win

Correct

Our model 49%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,539 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.8% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,728 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 84%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 1,679 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.9% of the time (bookmakers said 81.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,259 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.2% of the time (bookmakers said 51.6%).

Independiente Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,448 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Deportivo Riestra Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo Riestra 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 82%Bookmakers 87%

Our track record

In 1,472 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Independiente2

Deportivo Riestra1

Winner

1X 78%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 74%

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Independiente2

Deportivo Riestra1

Winner

1X 78%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 74%

Full Time

149%

X29%

222%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	37%	63%	64%	36%	74%	26%	92%	8%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	37%	63%	64%	36%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	74%	26%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	62%	38%	86%	14%	96%	4%
	47%	53%	82%	18%	96%	4%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	62%	38%
	47%	53%	82%	18%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	86%	14%	96%	4%
	96%	4%	99%	1%

1st Half

134%

X51%

215%

1st Score

158%

X12%

230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-X

21%

X-1

20%

X-2

2-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

15.6%

1-1

12.8%

0-0

12.3%

2-0

10.4%

0-1

9.5%

2-1

8.8%

1-2

5.2%

3-0

4.3%

3-1

3.7%

0-2

3.6%

2-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra — Recent Form

Independiente have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. Deportivo Riestra have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Independiente

Deportivo Riestra

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Deportivo Riestra

3/5

Independiente

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Deportivo Riestra

3/5

Independiente

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Deportivo Riestra

3/5

Independiente

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Deportivo Riestra

5/5

Independiente

5/5

First Half Result

Deportivo Riestra

3/5

Independiente

3/5

Correct Score

Deportivo Riestra

2/5

Independiente

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction