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Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield 2-0 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 16)
Unión Santa Fe2–0
Vélez SarsfieldOn these chances Unión Santa Fe would usually take 2.4 points and Vélez Sarsfield 0.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Vélez Sarsfield.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield stats: how the match was played
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Unión Santa Fe had more than twice the shots on target
Unión Santa Fe
Vélez Sarsfield
4
Shots on target
1
4
Big chances
0
5
Corners
1
4
Yellow cards
2
0
Red cards
1
41%
Possession
59%
Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Unión Santa Fe to win
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Vélez Sarsfield to win.
Our track record
In 1,504 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.6% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,106 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,285 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Unión Santa Fe 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,646 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Vélez Sarsfield 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,318 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Unión Santa Fe2
Vélez Sarsfield0Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Unión Santa Fe2Vélez Sarsfield0Winner
12 72%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 31% | 69% | 57% | 43% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 69% | 67% | 33% |
| 34% | 66% | 68% | 32% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 12% | 97% | 3% |
| 89% | 11% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
21%
X-X
20%
2-2
17%
X-1
14%
X-2
13%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.0%
1-0
11.4%
0-1
10.4%
0-0
9.8%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
8.0%
2-0
6.6%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Unión Santa Fe vs Vélez Sarsfield — Recent Form
Unión Santa Fe have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Vélez Sarsfield have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table.
Last 5 matches
Unión Santa FeVélez SarsfieldOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Unión Santa FeVélez SarsfieldBoth Teams to Score
Unión Santa FeVélez SarsfieldOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Unión Santa FeVélez SarsfieldOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Unión Santa FeVélez SarsfieldFirst Half Result
Unión Santa FeVélez SarsfieldCorrect Score
Unión Santa FeVélez Sarsfield