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Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto

Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 13)

Smash-and-grab

Instituto won with less than half the chances

Defensa y Justicia

0–1

Instituto

1.6Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Defensa y Justicia would usually take 2.1 points and Instituto 0.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Defensa y Justicia.

Defensa y Justicia −2.1 pts vs chancesInstituto +2.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Defensa y Justicia

Instituto

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

68%

Possession

32%

The match between Defensa y Justicia and Instituto ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Defensa y Justicia win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Instituto – Deportivo Riestra prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).

Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensa y Justicia to win

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 3,628 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 3,143 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,292 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Defensa y Justicia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensa y Justicia 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Instituto Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Instituto 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,393 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Defensa y Justicia0

Instituto1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina

Defensa y Justicia0

Instituto1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

143%

X27%

230%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%	64%	36%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	60%	40%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	36%	64%	70%	30%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	60%	40%
	36%	64%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

130%

X47%

222%

1st Score

150%

X9%

241%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

22%

1-1

21%

X-1

15%

2-2

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.7%

1-0

10.7%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

8.6%

0-0

8.6%

1-2

7.3%

2-0

7.0%

2-2

5.0%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

3.9%

3-0

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto — Recent Form

Instituto have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Defensa y Justicia have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table.

Last 5 matches

Instituto

Defensa y Justicia

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Defensa y Justicia

1/5

Instituto

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Defensa y Justicia

3/5

Instituto

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Defensa y Justicia

2/5

Instituto

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Defensa y Justicia

4/5

Instituto

2/5

First Half Result

Defensa y Justicia

0/5

Instituto

4/5

Correct Score

Defensa y Justicia

0/5

Instituto

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Instituto – Deportivo Riestra prediction & betting tips (Oct 27, 2026).