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VPS vs Gnistan

VPS vs Gnistan 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 5)

Fair result

VPS

1–0

Gnistan

0.9Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances VPS would usually take 1.4 points and Gnistan 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: VPS.

VPS +1.6 pts vs chancesGnistan −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

VPS vs Gnistan stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

VPS

Gnistan

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

51%

Possession

49%

The match between VPS and Gnistan ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a VPS win with 45% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: VPS – Inter Turku prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

VPS vs Gnistan — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VPS to win

Correct

Our model 45%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 3,608 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,159 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,954 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 39%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 2,000 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

VPS Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VPS 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,805 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Gnistan Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gnistan 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

VPS vs Gnistan 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for VPS vs Gnistan. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

VPS1

Gnistan0

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

VPS1

Gnistan0

Winner

1X 69%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

145%

X25%

231%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	58%	42%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	58%	42%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	55%	45%	80%	20%	93%	7%
	33%	67%	66%	34%	87%	13%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	55%	45%
	33%	67%	66%	34%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	80%	20%	93%	7%
	87%	13%	96%	4%

1st Half

137%

X39%

224%

1st Score

153%

X6%

241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

2-2

16%

X-1

14%

X-X

14%

X-2

10%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.5%

2-1

9.6%

1-0

9.3%

1-2

7.6%

0-1

7.2%

2-0

6.9%

0-0

5.9%

2-2

5.8%

3-1

4.7%

0-2

4.4%

3-0

3.6%

1-3

3.2%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

VPS vs Gnistan — Recent Form

Gnistan have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table. VPS have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Gnistan

VPS

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

VPS

5/5

Gnistan

2/5

Both Teams to Score

VPS

0/5

Gnistan

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

VPS

2/5

Gnistan

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

VPS

4/5

Gnistan

4/5

First Half Result

VPS

3/5

Gnistan

2/5

Correct Score

VPS

0/5

Gnistan

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: VPS – Inter Turku prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).