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Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
A-League Men - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)
Melbourne Victory1–1
Central Coast MarinersOn these chances Melbourne Victory would usually take 0.9 points and Central Coast Mariners 1.8; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Melbourne Victory.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners stats: how the match was played
A-League Men
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Central Coast Mariners had clearly more shots on target
Melbourne Victory
Central Coast Mariners
4
Shots on target
7
0
Big chances
2
6
Corners
2
1
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
0
40%
Possession
60%
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · A-League Men
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Melbourne Victory to win
WrongOur track record
In 1,813 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,773 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,349 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,434 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Melbourne Victory ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,300 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,515 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Central Coast Mariners 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,383 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Melbourne Victory1
Central Coast Mariners1Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Melbourne Victory1Central Coast Mariners1Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 76% | 24% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 43% | 57% |
| 42% | 58% | 73% | 27% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 31% | 85% | 15% |
| 91% | 9% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
41%
X-1
18%
X-X
12%
2-2
9%
X-2
7%
1-X
4%
2-1
4%
2-X
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.6%
1-0
9.2%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
6.3%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.5%
2-2
5.4%
0-1
5.3%
0-0
4.9%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners — Recent Form
Melbourne Victory have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 3 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Central Coast Mariners have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 matches and currently sit 11th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast MarinersOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne VictoryBoth Teams to Score
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne VictoryOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne VictoryOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne VictoryFirst Half Result
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne VictoryCorrect Score
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Victory