2. Leagues
  3. A-League Men
  4. Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets

Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

A-League Men - Season 2025/2026 (Round 12)

Fair result
Melbourne CityMelbourne City

0–1

Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets
1.2Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Melbourne City would usually take 1.5 points and Newcastle Jets 1.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Melbourne City.

Melbourne City −1.5 pts vs chancesNewcastle Jets +1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets stats: how the match was played

A-League Men

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Newcastle Jets had more than twice the shots on target

Melbourne City

Newcastle Jets

2

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

3

7

Corners

5

0

Yellow cards

2

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Melbourne City and Newcastle Jets ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Melbourne City win at 53% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Newcastle Jets – Macarthur prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · A-League Men

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Melbourne City to win

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,470 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,450 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 3,079 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 936 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Melbourne City ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 1,241 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 53.9% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

Melbourne City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Melbourne City 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,464 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Newcastle Jets Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Newcastle Jets 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,271 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Melbourne City vs Newcastle Jets. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
A-League Men - Australia
Melbourne CityMelbourne City0
Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets1

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 51%

Full Time

153%
X21%
226%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT16%84%36%64%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT49%51%74%26%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Melbourne City18%82%44%56%
Newcastle Jets37%63%67%33%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Melbourne City70%30%87%13%
Newcastle Jets86%14%95%5%

1st Half

151%
X33%
216%

1st Score

165%
X4%
231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

45%

X-1

16%

X-X

11%

2-2

8%

X-2

6%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

2-1

9.8%

1-1

9.2%

1-0

7.8%

2-0

7.4%

1-2

6.3%

3-1

6.2%

2-2

5.8%

3-0

5.0%

0-1

4.8%

3-2

4.1%

0-0

3.9%

0-2

3.3%

1-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Newcastle Jets – Macarthur prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores