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Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

2. Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Fair result

Hertha BSC

2–1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2.0Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Hertha BSC would usually take 1.6 points and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Hertha BSC.

Hertha BSC +1.4 pts vs chancesSpVgg Greuther Fürth −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth stats: how the match was played

2. Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Hertha BSC had more than twice the shots on target

Hertha BSC

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

43%

Possession

57%

The match between Hertha BSC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Hertha BSC win with 48% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Osnabrück – SpVgg Greuther Fürth prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · 2. Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hertha BSC to win

Correct

Our model 48%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,514 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 67%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 130 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 50.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.4% than to our 65–70%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hertha BSC ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 39%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 2,003 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Hertha BSC Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hertha BSC 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Hertha BSC 2+ goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,309 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

2. Bundesliga - Germany

Hertha BSC2

SpVgg Greuther Fürth1

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

· FT

2. Bundesliga - Germany

Hertha BSC2

SpVgg Greuther Fürth1

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

148%

X25%

228%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	45%	55%	57%	43%	80%	20%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	57%	43%	80%	20%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	53%	47%	76%	24%	90%	10%
	38%	62%	70%	30%	89%	11%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	53%	47%
	38%	62%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	76%	24%	90%	10%
	89%	11%	97%	3%

1st Half

139%

X39%

222%

1st Score

156%

X7%

237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

15%

X-X

15%

2-2

14%

X-2

10%

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

10.8%

1-0

9.6%

2-1

8.8%

0-1

7.2%

2-0

7.0%

0-0

6.9%

1-2

6.9%

2-2

5.6%

3-1

5.2%

3-0

4.2%

0-2

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth — Recent Form

Hertha BSC have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Hertha BSC

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Hertha BSC

4/5

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Hertha BSC

3/5

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Hertha BSC

3/5

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Hertha BSC

4/5

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

5/5

First Half Result

Hertha BSC

1/5

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

0/5

Correct Score

Hertha BSC

0/5

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Osnabrück – SpVgg Greuther Fürth prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).