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AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result

AFC Bournemouth

3–0

Aston Villa

2.0Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances AFC Bournemouth would usually take 1.4 points and Aston Villa 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: AFC Bournemouth.

AFC Bournemouth +1.6 pts vs chancesAston Villa −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa stats: how the match was played

Carabao Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

AFC Bournemouth had clearly more shots on target

AFC Bournemouth

Aston Villa

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

49%

Possession

51%

The match between AFC Bournemouth and Aston Villa ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a AFC Bournemouth win with 39% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AFC Bournemouth to win

Correct

Our model 39%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,083 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,719 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,308 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,410 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 42%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,641 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

AFC Bournemouth Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AFC Bournemouth 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: AFC Bournemouth 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,019 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.8% than to our 55–60%.

Aston Villa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aston Villa 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 60.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Carabao Cup - England

AFC Bournemouth3

Aston Villa0

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

Carabao Cup - England

AFC Bournemouth3

Aston Villa0

Winner

12 76%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

139%

X24%

237%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	19%	81%	41%	59%	52%	48%	76%	24%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	19%	81%	41%	59%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	76%	24%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	74%	56%	44%	79%	21%	92%	9%
	29%	71%	58%	42%	81%	19%	93%	7%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	74%	56%	44%
	29%	71%	58%	42%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	79%	21%	92%	9%
	81%	19%	93%	7%

1st Half

132%

X42%

227%

1st Score

149%

X5%

246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

2-2

20%

X-1

15%

X-X

13%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

10.4%

2-1

8.0%

1-2

7.8%

1-0

7.4%

0-1

6.9%

2-2

6.2%

2-0

5.7%

0-2

5.3%

0-0

5.1%

1-3

4.0%

3-1

4.0%

2-3

3.4%

3-2

3.2%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

AFC Bournemouth vs Aston Villa — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Aston Villa

1/2

AFC Bournemouth

2/2

Both Teams to Score

Aston Villa

1/2

AFC Bournemouth

0/2

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Aston Villa

2/2

AFC Bournemouth

2/2

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Aston Villa

1/2

AFC Bournemouth

1/2

First Half Result

Aston Villa

0/2

AFC Bournemouth

0/2

Correct Score

Aston Villa

0/2

AFC Bournemouth

0/2

correct predictionwrong prediction