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Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027 3rd Round (Knock Out)

Fair result
LiverpoolLiverpool

3–1

Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur
1.3Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Liverpool would usually take 1.0 points and Tottenham Hotspur 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Liverpool.

Liverpool +2.0 pts vs chancesTottenham Hotspur −1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur stats: how the match was played

Carabao Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Liverpool

Tottenham Hotspur

5

Shots on target

6

2

Big chances

4

5

Corners

9

3

Yellow cards

2

44%

Possession

57%

The match between Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Liverpool win with 55% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Liverpool – Chelsea prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Liverpool to win

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Liverpool ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Liverpool Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Liverpool 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Tottenham Hotspur Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tottenham Hotspur 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Carabao Cup - England
LiverpoolLiverpool3
Tottenham HotspurTottenham Hotspur1

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

155%
X21%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT18%82%38%62%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT52%48%76%24%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Liverpool17%83%44%56%
Tottenham Hotspur39%61%70%30%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Liverpool70%30%87%13%
Tottenham Hotspur89%11%96%4%

1st Half

143%
X35%
222%

1st Score

159%
X5%
237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

17%

2-2

14%

X-X

12%

X-2

8%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

2-1

10.3%

1-1

9.6%

1-0

8.4%

2-0

7.9%

3-1

6.0%

1-2

6.0%

3-0

6.0%

2-2

5.5%

0-1

5.0%

0-0

4.5%

3-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Liverpool – Chelsea prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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