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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Atalanta 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2025/2026 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 8)

Fair result
Union Saint-GilloiseUnion Saint-Gilloise

1–0

AtalantaAtalanta
0.9Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Union Saint-Gilloise would usually take 1.2 points and Atalanta 1.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atalanta.

Union Saint-Gilloise +1.8 pts vs chancesAtalanta −1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Atalanta stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Union Saint-Gilloise had more than twice the shots on target

Union Saint-Gilloise

Atalanta

4

Shots on target

2

1

Big chances

1

0

Corners

6

2

Yellow cards

3

36%

Possession

64%

The match between Union Saint-Gilloise and Atalanta ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Union Saint-Gilloise win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Atalanta — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Union Saint-Gilloise to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Atalanta to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,058 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Union Saint-Gilloise Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Union Saint-Gilloise 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Atalanta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atalanta 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Atalanta 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Atalanta. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Champions League - Europe
Union Saint-GilloiseUnion Saint-Gilloise1
AtalantaAtalanta0

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

140%
X25%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT24%76%47%53%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%84%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Union Saint-Gilloise27%73%60%40%
Atalanta31%69%64%36%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Union Saint-Gilloise83%17%94%6%
Atalanta85%15%95%5%

1st Half

129%
X44%
227%

1st Score

152%
X7%
241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

21%

X-X

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

1-0

9.3%

2-1

9.1%

1-2

8.3%

0-1

8.1%

0-0

6.5%

2-0

6.4%

0-2

5.3%

2-2

5.2%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.5%

1-3

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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