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Atalanta vs FC Bayern München 1-6 Score & Prediction Review
Champions League - Season 2025/2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)
Atalanta1–6
FC Bayern MünchenOn these chances Atalanta would usually take 0.5 points and FC Bayern München 2.4; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: FC Bayern München.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Atalanta vs FC Bayern München stats: how the match was played
Champions League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
FC Bayern München had more than twice the shots on target
Atalanta
FC Bayern München
3
Shots on target
13
4
Big chances
8
2
Corners
7
1
Yellow cards
3
30%
Possession
70%
Atalanta vs FC Bayern München — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,688 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,383 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: FC Bayern München ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Atalanta 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,675 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Atalanta vs FC Bayern München 1-6 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atalanta vs FC Bayern München. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Atalanta1
FC Bayern München6Winner
X2 72%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Atalanta1FC Bayern München6Winner
X2 72%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 52% | 48% | 76% | 24% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37% | 63% | 67% | 33% |
| 21% | 79% | 48% | 52% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
| 74% | 26% | 88% | 12% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
28%
1-1
19%
X-X
14%
X-2
14%
X-1
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
9.6%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.2%
0-2
8.1%
2-1
6.2%
1-0
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
1-3
5.1%
0-0
4.7%
0-3
4.5%
2-0
3.7%
2-3
3.5%
3-1
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score