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Manchester City vs Napoli

Manchester City vs Napoli Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 5)

Unlucky

Manchester City are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring

−6points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10

83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.

Bookmakers: Manchester City 77% to win

Manchester City vs Napoli score prediction

Champions League

The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.

Manchester City expected to score more than twice as many as Napoli

3.6 goals in total, a little under the Champions League average of 3.7.

goals expected

Manchester City2.5

Napoli1.1

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.

Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.

How we measure →

Get our AI football prediction and stats for Manchester City vs Napoli: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.

Manchester City vs Napoli — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester City to win

Our model 55%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.9% of the time (bookmakers said 55.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,740 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.9%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Our model 60%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,104 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Our model 62%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 276 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.0% than to our 60–65%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester City ahead at half-time

Our model 41%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 6,646 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Manchester City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Manchester City 2+ goals

Our model 55%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,487 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Napoli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Napoli 0–1 goals

Our model 71%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,357 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.0% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).

Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.

Manchester City vs Napoli — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market

Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Manchester City vs Napoli. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.

Champions League - Europe

Manchester City–

Napoli–

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Champions League - Europe

Manchester City–

Napoli–

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

155%

X22%

224%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	19%	81%	40%	60%	52%	48%	76%	24%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	19%	81%	40%	60%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	76%	24%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	18%	82%	45%	55%	70%	30%	86%	14%
	40%	60%	71%	29%	89%	11%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	18%	82%	45%	55%
	40%	60%	71%	29%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	70%	30%	86%	14%
	89%	11%	96%	4%

1st Half

141%

X36%

223%

1st Score

157%

X5%

238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

18%

2-2

14%

X-X

11%

X-2

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

9.7%

2-1

9.4%

1-0

8.8%

2-0

8.1%

1-2

6.0%

3-1

5.9%

2-2

5.6%

3-0

5.4%

0-1

5.4%

0-0

4.9%

3-2

3.9%

0-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Manchester City vs Napoli: attack vs defence

Champions League

Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.

How to read it

other Champions League teamsleague averagelast 10 games

↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)

More chances created (xG a game) →

Manchester City: good attack, good defence (1.94 xG, 1.24 xGA a game)
Napoli: weak attack, weak defence (1.29 xG, 1.74 xGA)

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.

How we measure →

Manchester City vs Napoli form and luck check

Champions League

Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.

How to read it

what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Champions League games

Manchester City are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring

Manchester CityBookmakers: 77% to win today.Wasteful · −6 goals
−6.2

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.

We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.

Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.

How we measure →

Manchester City vs Napoli: Over 2.5 & BTTS?

Champions League

How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.

How to read it

a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Champions League gamesBTTS = both teams scored

Napoli games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Champions League average (69%), Manchester City games more often.

Over 2.5 goalsleague 69%

Manchester City7 of 10

Napoli4 of 8

BTTSleague 60%

Manchester City6 of 10

Napoli5 of 8

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 189 games played here in the last 12 months.

How we measure →

Manchester City vs Napoli corners, cards and goal times

Champions League

Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.

How to read it

league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gamePro

Corners won: league 4.8
Cards: league 1.8
Goals before half-time: league 42%
Goals after 75': league 20%

Corners and cards for every league: League stats →

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.

How we measure →

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Napoli

4/4

Manchester City

1/4

Both Teams to Score

Napoli

3/4

Manchester City

2/4

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Napoli

3/4

Manchester City

3/4

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Napoli

1/4

Manchester City

1/4

First Half Result

Napoli

2/4

Manchester City

2/4

Correct Score

Napoli

0/4

Manchester City

0/4

correct predictionwrong prediction