Brick wall
6/10Arsenal kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 22%).
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Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 5)
Wasteful
Borussia Dortmund are scoring fewer goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
−3goals fewer than their chances (xG) in their last 10
77% of teams scoring this many fewer goals than their chances scored more in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Borussia Dortmund 12% to win
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund score prediction
Champions League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Arsenal expected to score more than twice as many as Borussia Dortmund
3.1 goals in total: fewer goals than usual (the Champions League average is 3.7).
goals expected
Arsenal2.1
Borussia Dortmund1.0Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Arsenal to win
Our model 59%Bookmakers 69%
Our track record
In 1,795 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 53%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 3,079 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 5,308 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 64%
Our track record
In 3,993 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.6%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Arsenal ahead at half-time
Our model 42%Bookmakers 51%
Our track record
In 6,646 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Arsenal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Arsenal 2+ goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,487 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.1% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).
Borussia Dortmund Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Borussia Dortmund 0–1 goals
Our model 76%Bookmakers 81%
Our track record
In 2,556 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Arsenal–
Borussia Dortmund–Winner
1 59%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 57%
Arsenal–Borussia Dortmund–Winner
1 59%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 57%
Full Time
159%
X21%
220%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 44% | 56% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 57% | 43% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 44% | 56% |
| 45% | 55% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 30% | 87% | 13% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
142%
X38%
220%
1st Score
166%
X5%
229%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
37%
X-1
18%
X-X
12%
2-2
12%
X-2
8%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
10.3%
1-0
10.2%
1-1
10.1%
2-0
10.1%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
5.3%
0-0
5.2%
1-2
5.0%
2-2
4.9%
3-2
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: the stats that stand out
Champions League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Arsenal: brick wall and hard to break
6/10Hard to break
0/9Arsenal haven't conceded first in any of 9 recent matches with goal times (league 48%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: attack vs defence
Champions League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Champions League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Arsenal: weak attack, good defence (1.69 xG, 1.20 xGA a game)
- Borussia Dortmund: weak attack, good defence (1.62 xG, 1.29 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund form and luck check
Champions League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Champions League gamesBorussia Dortmund: results in line with their chances
- Borussia DortmundBookmakers: 12% to win today.Wasteful · −3 goals−1.2
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
How we measure →Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Champions League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Champions League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredArsenal and Borussia Dortmund games both go over 2.5 goals less often than the Champions League average (69%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 69%
Arsenal3 of 10
Borussia Dortmund6 of 10
BTTSleague 60%
Arsenal4 of 10
Borussia Dortmund5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 189 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund corners, cards and goal times
Champions League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.8
- Cards: league 1.8
- Goals before half-time: league 42%
- Goals after 75': league 20%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Borussia Dortmund4/4
Arsenal3/4
Both Teams to Score
Borussia Dortmund2/4
Arsenal2/4
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Borussia Dortmund3/4
Arsenal2/4
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Borussia Dortmund2/4
Arsenal3/4
First Half Result
Borussia Dortmund1/4
Arsenal2/4
Correct Score
Borussia Dortmund0/4
Arsenal0/4
correct predictionwrong prediction