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Arsenal vs LOSC Lille

Arsenal vs Lille 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)

Fair result

Arsenal

3–0

Lille

1.9Chances (xG)0.2

On these chances Arsenal would usually take 2.5 points and Lille 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Arsenal.

Arsenal +0.5 pts vs chancesLille −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Arsenal vs Lille stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Arsenal had more than twice the shots on target

Arsenal

Lille

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

57%

Possession

43%

The match between Arsenal and Lille ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Arsenal win with 55% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bodø / Glimt – Lille prediction & betting tips (Nov 3, 2026).

Arsenal vs Lille — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arsenal to win

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 5,153 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 4,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Arsenal ahead at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Arsenal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arsenal 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Lille Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 87%

Our track record

In 2,572 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Arsenal vs Lille 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Arsenal vs Lille. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Arsenal3

Lille0

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Arsenal3

Lille0

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

155%

X23%

222%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%	61%	39%	82%	18%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	61%	39%	82%	18%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	20%	80%	49%	51%	75%	25%	90%	10%
	44%	56%	77%	24%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	20%	80%	49%	51%
	44%	56%	77%	24%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	75%	25%	90%	10%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

138%

X40%

222%

1st Score

160%

X7%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

16%

X-X

15%

2-2

15%

X-2

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-0

11.4%

1-1

10.8%

2-0

9.9%

2-1

9.8%

0-0

6.7%

0-1

6.4%

3-0

6.0%

3-1

5.3%

1-2

5.2%

2-2

4.5%

0-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Arsenal vs Lille — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Lille

2/3

Arsenal

2/3

Both Teams to Score

Lille

3/3

Arsenal

2/3

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Lille

2/3

Arsenal

2/3

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Lille

1/3

Arsenal

2/3

First Half Result

Lille

2/3

Arsenal

2/3

Correct Score

Lille

0/3

Arsenal

0/3

correct predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bodø / Glimt – Lille prediction & betting tips (Nov 3, 2026).