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Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Fair result
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund

3–2

VillarrealVillarreal
2.8Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Borussia Dortmund would usually take 2.1 points and Villarreal 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Borussia Dortmund.

Borussia Dortmund +0.9 pts vs chancesVillarreal −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Borussia Dortmund

Villarreal

6

Shots on target

6

6

Big chances

2

9

Corners

7

1

Yellow cards

3

52%

Possession

48%

The match between Borussia Dortmund and Villarreal ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Borussia Dortmund win with 55% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sabah – Borussia Dortmund prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Borussia Dortmund to win

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Borussia Dortmund ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,043 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Borussia Dortmund Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Villarreal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Villarreal 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 74%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Champions League - Europe
Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund3
VillarrealVillarreal2

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

155%
X22%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT57%43%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Borussia Dortmund18%82%47%53%
Villarreal42%58%74%26%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Borussia Dortmund73%27%88%12%
Villarreal91%9%97%3%

1st Half

139%
X39%
222%

1st Score

157%
X6%
237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

17%

2-2

15%

X-X

13%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.4%

1-0

10.3%

2-1

9.6%

2-0

9.2%

1-2

5.8%

0-1

5.8%

3-0

5.7%

3-1

5.6%

0-0

5.5%

2-2

5.0%

3-2

3.3%

0-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sabah – Borussia Dortmund prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

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