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Porto vs Napoli

Porto vs Napoli Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 4)

Shot-shy

Napoli failed to score in 3 of their last 8 (league 22%).

3/8Failed to score · Napoli

Get our AI football prediction and stats for Porto vs Napoli: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.

Porto vs Napoli — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Porto to win

Our model 49%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Our model 51%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,526 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Our model 51%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,863 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Our model 73%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 4,594 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Our model 40%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,717 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Porto Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Porto 0–1 goals

Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,830 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Napoli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Napoli 0–1 goals

Our model 73%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,397 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.

Porto vs Napoli — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market

Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Porto vs Napoli. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.

Champions League - Europe

Porto–

Napoli–

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Champions League - Europe

Porto–

Napoli–

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

149%

X25%

227%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	51%	49%	63%	37%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	51%	49%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	55%	45%	80%	20%	93%	7%
	39%	61%	73%	27%	91%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	55%	45%
	39%	61%	73%	27%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	80%	20%	93%	7%
	91%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

137%

X40%

223%

1st Score

156%

X7%

237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

15%

X-X

15%

2-2

15%

X-2

10%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.9%

1-0

10.9%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

8.9%

0-1

7.8%

0-0

7.0%

1-2

6.6%

3-1

4.8%

3-0

4.7%

2-2

4.6%

0-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Porto vs Napoli: the stats that stand out

Champions League

Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.

How to read it

the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%

Napoli: shot-shy

Shot-shy

3/8

Napoli failed to score in 3 of their last 8 (league 22%).

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.

How we measure →

Porto vs Napoli: Over 2.5 & BTTS?

Champions League

How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.

How to read it

a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Champions League gamesBTTS = both teams scored

Napoli games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Champions League average (66%).

Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%

Napoli3 of 8

BTTSleague 59%

Napoli4 of 8

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 189 games played here in the last 12 months.

How we measure →

Porto vs Napoli corners, cards and goal times

Champions League

Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.

How to read it

league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameNapoli: last 8 with these statsPro · free for now

Napoli score early

Porto

Napoli

–

Corners won · league 4.7

4.8

–

Corners conceded · league 4.7

3.3

–

Cards · league 1.8

2.3

–

Opponents' cards · league 1.8

1.4

–

Goals before half-time · league 42%

60%

–

Goals after 75' · league 20%

10%

–

Conceded before half-time · league 42%

38%

–

Conceded after 75' · league 20%

23%

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.

How we measure →

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Porto

0/3

Napoli

3/3

Both Teams to Score

Porto

1/3

Napoli

2/3

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Porto

1/3

Napoli

2/3

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Porto

2/3

Napoli

1/3

First Half Result

Porto

2/3

Napoli

1/3

Correct Score

Porto

0/3

Napoli

0/3

correct predictionwrong prediction