Home
Leagues
Champions League
Club Brugge vs Aston Villa

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 1)

Fair result

Club Brugge

2–3

Aston Villa

2.1Chances (xG)2.3

On these chances Club Brugge would usually take 1.3 points and Aston Villa 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Club Brugge.

Club Brugge −1.3 pts vs chancesAston Villa +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa stats: how the match was played

Champions League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Club Brugge

Aston Villa

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

64%

Possession

36%

The match between Club Brugge and Aston Villa ended 2-3. Our AI model predicted a Club Brugge win at 58% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Club Brugge – Lens prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Champions League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Club Brugge to win

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 65%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Club Brugge ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 31%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Club Brugge Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Club Brugge 2+ goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Club Brugge 0–1 goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,027 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Aston Villa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aston Villa 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 75%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Club Brugge vs Aston Villa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Club Brugge2

Aston Villa3

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

· FT

Champions League - Europe

Club Brugge2

Aston Villa3

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

158%

X21%

221%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	21%	79%	42%	58%	55%	45%	77%	23%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	21%	79%	42%	58%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	55%	45%	77%	23%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	18%	82%	45%	55%	70%	31%	86%	14%
	44%	56%	75%	25%	91%	9%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	18%	82%	45%	55%
	44%	56%	75%	25%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	70%	31%	86%	14%
	91%	9%	97%	3%

1st Half

143%

X35%

221%

1st Score

161%

X5%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

18%

2-2

13%

X-X

10%

X-2

1-X

2-1

2-X

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

10.1%

1-1

9.6%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

9.0%

3-0

6.3%

3-1

5.8%

0-0

5.5%

0-1

5.4%

1-2

5.4%

2-2

4.8%

3-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Club Brugge – Lens prediction & betting tips (Oct 21, 2026).