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RB Leipzig vs PSV 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)
RB Leipzig1–0
PSVOn these chances RB Leipzig would usually take 2.0 points and PSV 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: RB Leipzig.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →RB Leipzig vs PSV stats: how the match was played
Champions League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
RB Leipzig had clearly more shots on target
RB Leipzig
PSV
7
Shots on target
5
3
Big chances
1
6
Corners
12
1
Yellow cards
2
43%
Possession
57%
RB Leipzig vs PSV — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
RB Leipzig to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 404 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 65.3%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.4% of the time (bookmakers said 71.3%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.
Our track record
In 181 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.5% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
PSV ahead at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: RB Leipzig ahead at half-time.
Our track record
Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.
Our model’s pick
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
PSV 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,013 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
RB Leipzig vs PSV 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for RB Leipzig vs PSV. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
RB Leipzig1
PSV0Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 69%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 71%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 59%
RB Leipzig1PSV0Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 69%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 71%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 59%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 12% | 88% | 29% | 71% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 41% | 59% | 67% | 33% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 47% | 53% |
| 28% | 72% | 54% | 46% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 29% | 87% | 13% |
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
2-2
24%
X-1
15%
X-X
9%
X-2
9%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
8.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
7.4%
1-0
4.7%
3-1
4.6%
2-3
4.4%
0-1
4.4%
2-0
4.3%
3-2
4.2%
3-0
3.9%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
RB Leipzig vs PSV — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
RB LeipzigPSVBoth Teams to Score
RB LeipzigPSVOver/Under 2.5 Goals
RB LeipzigPSVOver/Under 3.5 Goals
RB LeipzigPSVFirst Half Result
RB LeipzigPSVCorrect Score
RB LeipzigPSV