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Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens 3-1 Score & Prediction Review
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)
Shakhtar Donetsk3–1
AEK AthensOn these chances Shakhtar Donetsk would usually take 1.6 points and AEK Athens 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: AEK Athens.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens stats: how the match was played
Champions League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Shakhtar Donetsk
AEK Athens
4
Shots on target
3
2
Big chances
5
5
Corners
2
1
Yellow cards
4
55%
Possession
45%
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
AEK Athens to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,119 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,148 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,557 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,579 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Our model’s pick
AEK Athens 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Shakhtar Donetsk3
AEK Athens1Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Shakhtar Donetsk3AEK Athens1Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 73% | 53% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38% | 62% | 72% | 28% |
| 26% | 74% | 58% | 42% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
| 81% | 19% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
28%
X-X
18%
1-1
17%
X-2
13%
X-1
11%
1-X
4%
2-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.1%
0-1
10.9%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
8.6%
0-2
8.1%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
4.8%
2-2
4.7%
0-3
4.4%
1-3
4.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Shakhtar DonetskAEK AthensBoth Teams to Score
Shakhtar DonetskAEK AthensOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Shakhtar DonetskAEK AthensOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Shakhtar DonetskAEK AthensFirst Half Result
Shakhtar DonetskAEK AthensCorrect Score
Shakhtar DonetskAEK Athens