Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)
Roma vs Real Madrid — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Real Madrid to win
Our track record
In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.9% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 2,025 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 2,601 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.5%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 677 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.0% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 2,083 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.4% than to our 40–45%.
Our model’s pick
Roma 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,077 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Real Madrid 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 735 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.5% than to our 50–55%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Roma vs Real Madrid — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Roma vs Real Madrid. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Roma–
Real Madrid–Winner
X2 63%
BTTS**
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Roma–Real Madrid–Winner
X2 63%
BTTS**
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 36% | 64% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 47% | 53% | 72% | 28% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28% | 72% | 57% | 43% |
 | 26% | 74% | 54% | 46% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 91% | 9% |
| 77% | 23% | 90% | 10% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
2-2
21%
X-1
14%
X-X
14%
X-2
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.7%
1-2
8.1%
2-1
7.5%
0-1
6.3%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
5.1%
2-0
4.7%
1-3
4.5%
0-0
4.2%
3-1
4.1%
2-3
4.1%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Roma vs Real Madrid — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Real MadridRomaBoth Teams to Score
Real MadridRomaOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Real MadridRomaOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Real MadridRomaFirst Half Result
Real MadridRomaCorrect Score
Real MadridRoma