Hard to break
2/10Burnley conceded first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 47%).
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Cardiff City vs Burnley Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 15)
Unlucky
Burnley are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−5points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. Cardiff City are also behind their chances: about −4 points.
Bookmakers: Burnley 34% to winCardiff City 41%
Cardiff City vs Burnley score prediction
Championship
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.4 goals expected
3.4 goals in total: more goals than a typical Championship game (average 2.7).
goals expected
Cardiff City1.9Burnley1.5Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Cardiff City vs Burnley: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Cardiff City vs Burnley — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Championship
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cardiff City to win
Our model 61%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 1,068 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.7% of the time (bookmakers said 66.2%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 54%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 6,494 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.4% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 59%
Our track record
In 5,336 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 2,418 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cardiff City ahead at half-time
Our model 44%Bookmakers 32%
Our track record
In 2,287 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Cardiff City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cardiff City 2+ goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 3,506 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Burnley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Burnley 0–1 goals
Our model 78%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 2,575 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.5% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Cardiff City vs Burnley — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Cardiff City vs Burnley. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Cardiff City–
Burnley–Winner
1 61%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-0 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Cardiff City–Burnley–Winner
1 61%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-0 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
161%
X22%
217%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 42% | 58% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 85% | 42% | 58% |
| 47% | 53% | 77% | 23% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 32% | 85% | 15% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
144%
X37%
219%
1st Score
164%
X6%
230%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
39%
X-1
19%
X-X
12%
2-2
9%
1-X
5%
X-2
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
10.5%
2-1
10.3%
1-1
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
6.2%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
5.2%
1-2
5.1%
0-1
4.5%
3-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Cardiff City vs Burnley: the stats that stand out
Championship
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Burnley: hard to break and flop as favourites · Cardiff City: leaky
2/10Flop as favourites
1/6Burnley won only 1 of 6 as favourites (league 49%).
Leaky
1/10Cardiff City kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 24%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Cardiff City vs Burnley: attack vs defence
Championship
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Championship teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Cardiff City: good attack, weak defence (1.88 xG, 1.63 xGA a game)
- Burnley: weak attack, weak defence (1.37 xG, 1.53 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Cardiff City vs Burnley form and luck check
Championship
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Championship gamesBoth sides are getting less than their chances usually bring
- Cardiff CityBookmakers: 41% to win today.Wasteful · −6 goals−4.4
- BurnleyBookmakers: 34% to win today.−5.1
Last 5 matches
Cardiff CityL
W
D
W
L
BurnleyD
L
L
D
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Cardiff City 12th of 24 · Burnley 15th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Cardiff City vs Burnley: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Championship
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Championship gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Cardiff City and Burnley games more often than the Championship average (59%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 54%
Cardiff City6 of 10
Burnley6 of 10
BTTSleague 59%
Cardiff City6 of 10
Burnley8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 558 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Cardiff City vs Burnley corners, cards and goal times
Championship
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.2
- Cards: league 1.9
- Goals before half-time: league 47%
- Goals after 75': league 21%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Burnley1/5
Cardiff City3/5
Both Teams to Score
Burnley1/5
Cardiff City3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Burnley2/5
Cardiff City4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Burnley2/5
Cardiff City3/5
First Half Result
Burnley3/5
Cardiff City1/5
Correct Score
Burnley0/5
Cardiff City0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction