Banker as favourites
6/7Birmingham City won 6 of 7 as favourites (league 48%).
- Home
- Stoke City vs Birmingham City
Stoke City vs Birmingham City Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 16)
Riding their luck
Stoke City are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+10points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games. Birmingham City are also ahead of their chances: about +5 points.
Bookmakers: Stoke City 34% to winBirmingham City 38%
Stoke City vs Birmingham City score prediction
Championship
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.6 goals in total, a little under the Championship average of 2.7.
goals expected
Stoke City1.2Birmingham City1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Stoke City vs Birmingham City: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Stoke City vs Birmingham City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Championship
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Stoke City to win
Our model 38%Bookmakers 34%
Our track record
In 1,498 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.6% than to our 35–40%.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 57%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 5,740 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.9%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 5,122 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 69%Bookmakers 73%
Our track record
In 3,993 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.6%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 44%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 6,646 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Stoke City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Stoke City 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 3,442 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Birmingham City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Birmingham City 0–1 goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 2,630 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Stoke City vs Birmingham City — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Stoke City vs Birmingham City. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Stoke City–
Birmingham City–Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Stoke City–Birmingham City–Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
138%
X26%
237%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 47% | 53% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 61% | 39% |
| 29% | 71% | 62% | 38% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 17% | 94% | 6% |
| 85% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
127%
X44%
229%
1st Score
144%
X7%
249%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
22%
1-1
18%
X-X
18%
X-2
14%
X-1
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.1%
1-0
8.5%
0-1
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
0-0
6.6%
0-2
5.9%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Stoke City vs Birmingham City: the stats that stand out
Championship
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Birmingham City: banker as favourites and brick wall · Stoke City: hard to break
6/7Brick wall
4/10Birmingham City kept 4 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 24%).
Hard to break
3/10Stoke City conceded first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Stoke City vs Birmingham City: attack vs defence
Championship
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Championship teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Stoke City: weak attack, good defence (1.20 xG, 1.34 xGA a game)
- Birmingham City: good attack, good defence (1.81 xG, 1.30 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Stoke City vs Birmingham City form and luck check
Championship
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Championship gamesBoth sides are winning more than their chances suggest
- Stoke CityBookmakers: 34% to win today.Clinical · +4 goals+9.7
- Birmingham CityBookmakers: 38% to win today.+4.6
Last 5 matches
Stoke CityW
W
W
D
W
Birmingham CityW
W
W
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Stoke City 15th of 24 · Birmingham City 5th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Stoke City vs Birmingham City: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Championship
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Championship gamesBTTS = both teams scoredStoke City and Birmingham City games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Championship average (55%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 55%
Stoke City6 of 10
Birmingham City8 of 10
BTTSleague 59%
Stoke City7 of 10
Birmingham City5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 558 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Stoke City vs Birmingham City corners, cards and goal times
Championship
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.2
- Cards: league 1.9
- Goals before half-time: league 47%
- Goals after 75': league 22%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Birmingham City5/5
Stoke City1/5
Both Teams to Score
Birmingham City4/5
Stoke City2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Birmingham City2/5
Stoke City3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Birmingham City4/5
Stoke City5/5
First Half Result
Birmingham City1/5
Stoke City2/5
Correct Score
Birmingham City0/5
Stoke City0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction