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Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2025/2026 (Round 37)

Smash-and-grab

Charlton Athletic won with less than half the chances

MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough

0–1

Charlton AthleticCharlton Athletic
2.8Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Middlesbrough would usually take 2.6 points and Charlton Athletic 0.3; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Middlesbrough.

Middlesbrough −2.6 pts vs chancesCharlton Athletic +2.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Middlesbrough had more than twice the shots on target

Middlesbrough

Charlton Athletic

7

Shots on target

2

1

Big chances

2

11

Corners

2

0

Yellow cards

2

77%

Possession

23%

The match between Middlesbrough and Charlton Athletic ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Middlesbrough win at 61% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Middlesbrough to win

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 1,057 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Middlesbrough ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Middlesbrough Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).

Charlton Athletic Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Charlton Athletic 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 1,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Middlesbrough vs Charlton Athletic. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough0
Charlton AthleticCharlton Athletic1

Winner

1 61%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

161%
X23%
216%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%72%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT65%35%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Middlesbrough18%82%49%51%
Charlton Athletic51%49%83%17%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Middlesbrough75%25%90%10%
Charlton Athletic96%4%99%1%

1st Half

143%
X40%
217%

1st Score

165%
X8%
227%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

19%

X-X

14%

2-2

8%

X-2

6%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.4%

2-0

11.8%

1-1

11.1%

2-1

10.0%

0-0

7.9%

3-0

6.8%

0-1

6.2%

3-1

5.5%

1-2

4.2%

2-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bolton Wanderers – Middlesbrough prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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