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Southampton vs Swansea City 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result
SouthamptonSouthampton

3–1

Swansea CitySwansea City
1.6Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Southampton would usually take 1.5 points and Swansea City 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Southampton.

Southampton +1.5 pts vs chancesSwansea City −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Southampton vs Swansea City stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Southampton had more than twice the shots on target

Southampton

Swansea City

4

Shots on target

2

4

Big chances

1

9

Corners

3

0

Yellow cards

1

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Southampton and Swansea City ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Southampton win with 50% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: West Ham United – Southampton prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Southampton vs Swansea City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Southampton to win

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,477 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 3,955 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Southampton Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Southampton 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Southampton 2+ goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,850 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Swansea City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Swansea City 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Southampton vs Swansea City 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Southampton vs Swansea City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
SouthamptonSouthampton3
Swansea CitySwansea City1

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

150%
X25%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%46%54%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT59%41%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Southampton20%80%51%49%
Swansea City39%61%71%29%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Southampton77%23%91%9%
Swansea City90%10%97%3%

1st Half

135%
X42%
222%

1st Score

157%
X6%
237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-1

16%

X-X

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

10%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

11.7%

1-0

10.2%

2-1

9.7%

2-0

8.4%

0-0

6.4%

1-2

6.4%

0-1

6.2%

2-2

5.6%

3-1

5.0%

3-0

4.9%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: West Ham United – Southampton prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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