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Norwich City vs Birmingham City 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result
Norwich CityNorwich City

2–1

Birmingham CityBirmingham City
1.5Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Norwich City would usually take 1.6 points and Birmingham City 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Norwich City.

Norwich City +1.4 pts vs chancesBirmingham City −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Norwich City vs Birmingham City stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Norwich City had more than twice the shots on target

Norwich City

Birmingham City

6

Shots on target

3

2

Big chances

2

6

Corners

7

6

Yellow cards

3

51%

Possession

49%

The match between Norwich City and Birmingham City ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Norwich City win with 45% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Charlton Athletic – Norwich City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Norwich City vs Birmingham City — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Norwich City to win

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,478 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,690 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 3,952 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Norwich City Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Norwich City 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Norwich City 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,849 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Birmingham City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Birmingham City 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,268 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Norwich City vs Birmingham City 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Norwich City vs Birmingham City. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Championship - England
Norwich CityNorwich City2
Birmingham CityBirmingham City1

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

145%
X26%
229%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT22%78%44%56%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%79%21%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Norwich City23%77%54%46%
Birmingham City35%65%66%34%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Norwich City78%22%91%9%
Birmingham City86%14%95%5%

1st Half

134%
X44%
222%

1st Score

155%
X7%
239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

19%

X-1

16%

2-2

14%

X-2

10%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.6%

2-1

9.2%

1-0

8.9%

2-0

6.9%

1-2

6.7%

0-0

6.5%

0-1

6.4%

2-2

5.8%

3-1

4.5%

0-2

3.8%

3-0

3.8%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Charlton Athletic – Norwich City prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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