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Cardiff City vs Watford

Cardiff City vs Watford 5-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Fair result

Cardiff City

5–1

Watford

3.3Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Cardiff City would usually take 2.2 points and Watford 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Cardiff City.

Cardiff City +0.9 pts vs chancesWatford −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cardiff City vs Watford stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Cardiff City had more than twice the shots on target

Cardiff City

Watford

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Cardiff City and Watford ended 5-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Cardiff City win with 60% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wolverhampton Wanderers – Watford prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Cardiff City vs Watford — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City to win

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 5,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 67%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 3,955 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,649 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Cardiff City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cardiff City 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 56%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Watford Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Watford 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 78%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,570 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cardiff City vs Watford 5-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cardiff City vs Watford. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Championship - England

Cardiff City5

Watford1

Winner

1 60%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

· FT

Championship - England

Cardiff City5

Watford1

Winner

1 60%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

160%

X23%

218%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	57%	43%	80%	20%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	57%	43%	80%	20%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	16%	84%	44%	56%	70%	30%	87%	13%
	47%	53%	78%	22%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	16%	84%	44%	56%
	47%	53%	78%	22%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	70%	30%	87%	13%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

145%

X38%

218%

1st Score

161%

X6%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

39%

X-1

19%

X-X

12%

2-2

X-2

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

11.3%

1-1

10.1%

2-0

10.0%

2-1

9.7%

3-0

6.8%

0-0

6.3%

3-1

6.2%

1-2

5.3%

2-2

5.0%

0-1

5.0%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Cardiff City vs Watford — Recent Form

Cardiff City have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 19th in the table. Watford have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Cardiff City

Watford

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Watford

3/5

Cardiff City

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Watford

1/5

Cardiff City

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Watford

2/5

Cardiff City

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Watford

3/5

Cardiff City

2/5

First Half Result

Watford

2/5

Cardiff City

3/5

Correct Score

Watford

0/5

Cardiff City

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Wolverhampton Wanderers – Watford prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).