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Stoke City vs Middlesbrough

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Fair result

Stoke City

2–3

Middlesbrough

0.7Chances (xG)2.0

On these chances Stoke City would usually take 0.6 points and Middlesbrough 2.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Middlesbrough.

Stoke City −0.6 pts vs chancesMiddlesbrough +0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Middlesbrough had more than twice the shots on target

Stoke City

Middlesbrough

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

33%

Possession

67%

The match between Stoke City and Middlesbrough ended 2-3. Our AI model correctly predicted an Middlesbrough win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Stoke City – Preston North End prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Middlesbrough to win

Correct

Our model 41%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,748 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,209 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,595 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 41%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,718 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Stoke City Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Stoke City 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,490 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Middlesbrough Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Middlesbrough 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Middlesbrough 2+ goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 643 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Championship - England

Stoke City2

Middlesbrough3

Winner

X2 66%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

Championship - England

Stoke City2

Middlesbrough3

Winner

X2 66%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

134%

X26%

241%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	47%	53%	60%	40%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	47%	53%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	31%	69%	64%	36%	86%	14%	95%	5%
	27%	73%	59%	41%	83%	17%	94%	6%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	31%	69%	64%	36%
	27%	73%	59%	41%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	86%	14%	95%	5%
	83%	17%	94%	6%

1st Half

124%

X41%

235%

1st Score

140%

X7%

253%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

27%

X-2

16%

1-1

15%

X-X

15%

X-1

10%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

0-1

9.1%

1-2

9.0%

2-1

8.0%

1-0

8.0%

0-0

6.5%

0-2

6.4%

2-2

5.9%

2-0

5.4%

1-3

4.1%

0-3

3.3%

3-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Stoke City vs Middlesbrough — Recent Form

Middlesbrough have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. Stoke City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Middlesbrough

Stoke City

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Middlesbrough

3/5

Stoke City

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Middlesbrough

3/5

Stoke City

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Middlesbrough

3/5

Stoke City

5/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Middlesbrough

1/5

Stoke City

4/5

First Half Result

Middlesbrough

1/5

Stoke City

4/5

Correct Score

Middlesbrough

0/5

Stoke City

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Stoke City – Preston North End prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).