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Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County

Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Fair result

Queens Park Rangers

4–1

Derby County

1.9Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Queens Park Rangers would usually take 1.6 points and Derby County 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Queens Park Rangers.

Queens Park Rangers +1.4 pts vs chancesDerby County −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County stats: how the match was played

Championship

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Queens Park Rangers

Derby County

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

49%

Possession

52%

The match between Queens Park Rangers and Derby County ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Queens Park Rangers win with 45% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sheffield United – Derby County prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Championship

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Queens Park Rangers to win

Correct

Our model 45%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,303 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 67%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,956 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Queens Park Rangers Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Queens Park Rangers 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Queens Park Rangers 2+ goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,850 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Derby County Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Derby County 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,272 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Championship - England

Queens Park Rangers4

Derby County1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

· FT

Championship - England

Queens Park Rangers4

Derby County1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

145%

X25%

230%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%	57%	43%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	45%	55%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	57%	43%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	54%	46%	79%	21%	92%	8%
	33%	67%	66%	34%	87%	13%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	54%	46%
	33%	67%	66%	34%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	79%	21%	92%	8%
	87%	13%	96%	4%

1st Half

134%

X41%

225%

1st Score

152%

X6%

243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

27%

X-X

16%

X-1

15%

2-2

15%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.9%

2-1

9.5%

1-0

9.0%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

7.0%

0-1

7.0%

2-2

6.1%

0-0

5.5%

3-1

4.8%

0-2

4.4%

3-0

3.7%

3-2

3.4%

1-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County — Recent Form

Queens Park Rangers have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Derby County have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 23rd in the table.

Last 5 matches

Queens Park Rangers

Derby County

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Derby County

2/5

Queens Park Rangers

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Derby County

3/5

Queens Park Rangers

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Derby County

4/5

Queens Park Rangers

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Derby County

4/5

Queens Park Rangers

3/5

First Half Result

Derby County

2/5

Queens Park Rangers

1/5

Correct Score

Derby County

2/5

Queens Park Rangers

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sheffield United – Derby County prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).