2. Leagues
  3. Chance Liga
  4. Karviná vs Pardubice

Karviná vs Pardubice 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Chance Liga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 25)

Smash-and-grab

Pardubice won with fewer chances than Karviná

KarvináKarviná

1–2

PardubicePardubice
2.0Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Karviná would usually take 1.9 points and Pardubice 0.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Karviná.

Karviná −1.9 pts vs chancesPardubice +2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Karviná vs Pardubice stats: how the match was played

Chance Liga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Karviná had more than twice the shots on target

Karviná

Pardubice

5

Shots on target

2

2

Big chances

5

9

Corners

3

1

Yellow cards

2

63%

Possession

37%

The match between Karviná and Pardubice ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Karviná win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sparta Praha – Pardubice prediction & betting tips (Oct 11, 2026).

Karviná vs Pardubice — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Chance Liga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Karviná to win

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,051 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.4% of the time (bookmakers said 43.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,509 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,033 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,835 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Karviná Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Karviná 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,361 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Pardubice Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Pardubice 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Karviná vs Pardubice 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Karviná vs Pardubice. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Chance Liga - Czech Republic
KarvináKarviná1
PardubicePardubice2

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

140%
X26%
234%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%46%54%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT59%41%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Karviná27%73%59%41%
Pardubice30%70%63%37%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Karviná83%17%94%6%
Pardubice85%15%95%5%

1st Half

132%
X41%
226%

1st Score

151%
X6%
242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

18%

X-X

16%

X-1

14%

X-2

12%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

2-1

8.9%

1-0

8.8%

1-2

8.2%

0-1

8.1%

0-0

6.5%

2-0

6.1%

2-2

6.1%

0-2

5.0%

3-1

4.1%

1-3

3.4%

3-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sparta Praha – Pardubice prediction & betting tips (Oct 11, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores