Home
Leagues
Copa Libertadores
O'Higgins vs Deportes Tolima

O'Higgins vs Deportes Tolima 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Libertadores - Season 2026 3rd Round (Knock Out)

Fair result

O'Higgins

1–0

Deportes Tolima

1.3Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances O'Higgins would usually take 1.7 points and Deportes Tolima 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: O'Higgins.

O'Higgins +1.3 pts vs chancesDeportes Tolima −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

O'Higgins vs Deportes Tolima stats: how the match was played

Copa Libertadores

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

O'Higgins

Deportes Tolima

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

65%

Possession

35%

The match between O'Higgins and Deportes Tolima ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a O'Higgins win with 39% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

O'Higgins vs Deportes Tolima — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Libertadores

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

O'Higgins to win

Correct

Our model 39%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.3% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,145 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,209 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 75%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 4,595 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,295 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.1% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

O'Higgins Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

O'Higgins 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 64%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,490 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Deportes Tolima Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportes Tolima 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,317 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

O'Higgins vs Deportes Tolima 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for O'Higgins vs Deportes Tolima. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Copa Libertadores - South America

O'Higgins1

Deportes Tolima0

Winner

12 73%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

· FT

Copa Libertadores - South America

O'Higgins1

Deportes Tolima0

Winner

12 73%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

139%

X27%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	65%	35%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	65%	35%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	30%	70%	64%	36%	86%	14%	95%	5%
	33%	67%	68%	32%	88%	12%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	30%	70%	64%	36%
	33%	67%	68%	32%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	86%	14%	95%	5%
	88%	12%	96%	4%

1st Half

130%

X45%

225%

1st Score

149%

X9%

242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

18%

2-2

18%

X-1

15%

X-2

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.7%

1-0

10.6%

0-1

10.0%

0-0

8.6%

2-1

8.0%

1-2

7.4%

2-0

6.8%

0-2

5.8%

2-2

4.9%

3-1

3.6%

1-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score