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Independiente Medellín vs Juventud

Independiente Medellín vs Juventud 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Libertadores - Season 2026 3rd Round (Knock Out)

Fair result

Independiente Medellín

2–1

Juventud

1.4Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Independiente Medellín would usually take 1.5 points and Juventud 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Independiente Medellín.

Independiente Medellín +1.5 pts vs chancesJuventud −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Independiente Medellín vs Juventud stats: how the match was played

Copa Libertadores

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Independiente Medellín

Juventud

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

51%

Possession

49%

The match between Independiente Medellín and Juventud ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Independiente Medellín win with 52% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Independiente Medellín vs Juventud — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Libertadores

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín to win

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 6,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,327 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,664 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Independiente Medellín ahead at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Independiente Medellín Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Independiente Medellín 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,868 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Juventud Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Juventud 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 79%Bookmakers 87%

Our track record

In 2,584 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Independiente Medellín vs Juventud 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Independiente Medellín vs Juventud. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Copa Libertadores - South America

Independiente Medellín2

Juventud1

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Copa Libertadores - South America

Independiente Medellín2

Juventud1

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

152%

X25%

222%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	30%	70%	55%	45%	66%	34%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	30%	70%	55%	45%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	55%	45%	79%	21%	92%	8%
	45%	55%	79%	21%	94%	6%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	55%	45%
	45%	55%	79%	21%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	79%	21%	92%	8%
	94%	6%	99%	1%

1st Half

137%

X43%

220%

1st Score

157%

X9%

234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

18%

X-X

16%

2-2

12%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

13.3%

1-1

12.0%

2-0

9.8%

2-1

9.5%

0-0

8.7%

0-1

8.0%

1-2

5.3%

3-0

5.2%

3-1

4.8%

2-2

4.1%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score