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  4. Club Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira

Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Libertadores - Season 2026 Group Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)

Robbed

Bolívar drew despite more chances

BolívarBolívar

1–1

Deportivo La GuairaDeportivo La Guaira
2.3Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances Bolívar would usually take 2.6 points and Deportivo La Guaira 0.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Bolívar.

Bolívar −1.6 pts vs chancesDeportivo La Guaira +0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira stats: how the match was played

Copa Libertadores

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Bolívar had more than twice the shots on target

Bolívar

Deportivo La Guaira

6

Shots on target

2

3

Big chances

0

15

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

0

0

Red cards

1

71%

Possession

29%

The match between Bolívar and Deportivo La Guaira ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Bolívar win at 56% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Libertadores

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolívar to win

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,813 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,143 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,361 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,412 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolívar ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 6,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Bolívar Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bolívar 2+ goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Deportivo La Guaira Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Deportivo La Guaira 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 3,396 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bolívar vs Deportivo La Guaira. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Copa Libertadores - South America
BolívarBolívar1
Deportivo La GuairaDeportivo La Guaira1

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

156%
X23%
221%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%43%57%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT55%45%78%22%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Bolívar17%83%45%55%
Deportivo La Guaira43%57%74%26%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Bolívar70%30%87%13%
Deportivo La Guaira91%9%97%3%

1st Half

143%
X38%
220%

1st Score

159%
X6%
235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

37%

X-1

17%

X-X

13%

2-2

12%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.5%

1-0

9.9%

2-0

9.1%

2-1

9.1%

3-0

6.2%

3-1

6.0%

0-0

5.8%

1-2

5.4%

0-1

5.2%

2-2

5.1%

3-2

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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