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Fluminense vs Palmeiras

Fluminense vs Palmeiras 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Copa Libertadores - Season 2026 Semi-finals (Knock Out)

Fair result

Fluminense

1–2

Palmeiras

0.9Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Fluminense would usually take 1.2 points and Palmeiras 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Palmeiras.

Fluminense −1.2 pts vs chancesPalmeiras +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Fluminense vs Palmeiras stats: how the match was played

Copa Libertadores

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Palmeiras had clearly more shots on target

Fluminense

Palmeiras

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

70%

Possession

30%

The match between Fluminense and Palmeiras ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Fluminense win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Fluminense vs Palmeiras — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Copa Libertadores

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Palmeiras to win.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,069 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 5,208 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 4,594 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 6,717 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Fluminense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Palmeiras Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Palmeiras 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 71%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,397 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Fluminense vs Palmeiras 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fluminense vs Palmeiras. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Copa Libertadores - South America

Fluminense1

Palmeiras2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

· FT

Copa Libertadores - South America

Fluminense1

Palmeiras2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

144%

X27%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%	64%	36%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	64%	36%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%	83%	17%	94%	6%
	37%	63%	71%	29%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	59%	41%
	37%	63%	71%	29%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	83%	17%	94%	6%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

133%

X43%

223%

1st Score

150%

X8%

241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-1

18%

X-X

16%

2-2

15%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.6%

1-0

11.3%

2-1

9.2%

0-1

8.3%

0-0

8.1%

2-0

7.4%

1-2

7.0%

2-2

5.3%

0-2

4.5%

3-0

4.0%

3-1

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Fluminense vs Palmeiras — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Fluminense

1/5

Palmeiras

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Fluminense

3/5

Palmeiras

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Fluminense

3/5

Palmeiras

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Fluminense

5/5

Palmeiras

4/5

First Half Result

Fluminense

1/5

Palmeiras

1/5

Correct Score

Fluminense

1/5

Palmeiras

1/5

correct predictionwrong prediction