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UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Taça De Portugal - Season 2026/2027 2nd Round (Knock Out)

UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel stats: how the match was played

Taça De Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Penafiel had more than twice the shots on target

UD Oliveirense

Penafiel

2

Shots on target

4

0

Corners

4

5

Yellow cards

5

The match between UD Oliveirense and Penafiel ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a UD Oliveirense win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Penafiel – Leca prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Taça De Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

UD Oliveirense to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Penafiel to win.

Our model 46%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 370 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.9% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,379 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 4,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,586 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.8% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

UD Oliveirense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

UD Oliveirense 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Penafiel Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Penafiel 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 69%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,210 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Taça De Portugal - Portugal
UD OliveirenseUD Oliveirense1
PenafielPenafiel2

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

146%
X25%
229%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%48%52%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
UD Oliveirense25%75%56%44%
Penafiel36%64%69%31%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
UD Oliveirense80%20%93%7%
Penafiel88%12%96%4%

1st Half

133%
X43%
224%

1st Score

154%
X7%
239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

2-2

17%

X-X

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

1-0

10.1%

2-1

9.4%

0-1

7.4%

2-0

7.1%

0-0

7.0%

1-2

6.7%

2-2

5.1%

3-1

4.6%

0-2

4.5%

3-0

4.2%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

PenafielPenafiel
0/1
UD OliveirenseUD Oliveirense
0/1

Both Teams to Score

PenafielPenafiel
1/1
UD OliveirenseUD Oliveirense
1/1

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

PenafielPenafiel
1/1
UD OliveirenseUD Oliveirense
1/1

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

PenafielPenafiel
1/1
UD OliveirenseUD Oliveirense
1/1

First Half Result

PenafielPenafiel
0/1
UD OliveirenseUD Oliveirense
0/1

Correct Score

PenafielPenafiel
0/1
UD OliveirenseUD Oliveirense
0/1
correct predictionwrong prediction
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Penafiel – Leca prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

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