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UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel 1-2 Score & Prediction Review
Taça De Portugal - Season 2026/2027 2nd Round (Knock Out)
UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel stats: how the match was played
Taça De Portugal
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Penafiel had more than twice the shots on target
UD Oliveirense
Penafiel
2
Shots on target
4
0
Corners
4
5
Yellow cards
5
UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Taça De Portugal
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
UD Oliveirense to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Penafiel to win.
Our track record
In 376 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.9% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,860 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
UD Oliveirense 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Penafiel 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,309 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
UD Oliveirense1
Penafiel2Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
UD Oliveirense1Penafiel2Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 60%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 60% | 40% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 25% | 75% | 56% | 44% |
 | 36% | 64% | 69% | 31% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
24%
2-2
17%
X-X
16%
X-1
15%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.8%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
7.4%
2-0
7.1%
0-0
7.0%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
4.6%
0-2
4.5%
3-0
4.2%
3-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score