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Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs St. Pauli 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

DFB Pokal - Season 2025/2026 Quarter-finals (Knock Out)

Fair result
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen

3–0

St. PauliSt. Pauli
1.0Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Bayer 04 Leverkusen would usually take 1.3 points and St. Pauli 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bayer 04 Leverkusen.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen +1.7 pts vs chancesSt. Pauli −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs St. Pauli stats: how the match was played

DFB Pokal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen had more than twice the shots on target

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

St. Pauli

4

Shots on target

1

3

Big chances

3

4

Corners

5

1

Yellow cards

2

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Bayer 04 Leverkusen and St. Pauli ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win with 65% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Nürnberg prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs St. Pauli — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · DFB Pokal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,055 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.8% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,301 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,955 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bayer 04 Leverkusen ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Bayer 04 Leverkusen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

St. Pauli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

St. Pauli 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 80%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 2,570 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs St. Pauli 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs St. Pauli. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
DFB Pokal - Germany
Bayer 04 LeverkusenBayer 04 Leverkusen3
St. PauliSt. Pauli0

Winner

1 65%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-0 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

165%
X19%
216%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT20%80%42%58%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT55%45%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Bayer 04 Leverkusen13%87%39%61%
St. Pauli49%51%80%20%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Bayer 04 Leverkusen66%34%85%15%
St. Pauli94%6%99%1%

1st Half

147%
X37%
216%

1st Score

168%
X5%
228%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

43%

X-1

20%

X-X

12%

2-2

8%

X-2

5%

1-X

4%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

10.8%

2-1

10.5%

2-0

10.2%

1-1

9.5%

3-0

7.9%

3-1

6.5%

0-0

4.7%

0-1

4.4%

1-2

4.3%

2-2

4.2%

3-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Nürnberg prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

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