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VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ

VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ 4-4 Score & Prediction Review

Eerste Divisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Fair result

VVV-Venlo

4–4

Jong AZ

2.0Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances VVV-Venlo would usually take 1.3 points and Jong AZ 1.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: VVV-Venlo.

VVV-Venlo −0.3 pts vs chancesJong AZ −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ stats: how the match was played

Eerste Divisie

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

VVV-Venlo

Jong AZ

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

48%

Possession

52%

The match between VVV-Venlo and Jong AZ ended 4-4. Our AI model predicted a VVV-Venlo win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Dordrecht – VVV-Venlo prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Eerste Divisie

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VVV-Venlo to win

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 408 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.3% of the time (bookmakers said 65.4%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.4% of the time (bookmakers said 71.3%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 284 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.4% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VVV-Venlo ahead at half-time

Wrong

Our model 41%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,658 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

VVV-Venlo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

VVV-Venlo 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Jong AZ Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Jong AZ 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Jong AZ 2+ goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ 4-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Eerste Divisie - Netherlands

VVV-Venlo4

Jong AZ4

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 70%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 72%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 62%

· FT

Eerste Divisie - Netherlands

VVV-Venlo4

Jong AZ4

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 70%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 72%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 62%

Full Time

148%

X24%

228%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	12%	88%	28%	72%	38%	62%	66%	34%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	12%	88%	28%	72%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	38%	62%	66%	34%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	17%	83%	41%	59%	67%	33%	84%	16%
	32%	68%	58%	42%	81%	19%	92%	8%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	17%	83%	41%	59%
	32%	68%	58%	42%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	67%	33%	84%	16%
	81%	19%	92%	8%

1st Half

141%

X33%

226%

1st Score

157%

X3%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

2-2

15%

X-1

14%

X-X

12%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

8.8%

2-1

8.5%

2-2

8.4%

1-2

6.5%

3-1

5.7%

1-0

5.4%

2-0

5.1%

3-2

5.0%

2-3

3.7%

3-0

3.7%

0-1

3.5%

1-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

VVV-Venlo vs Jong AZ — Recent Form

VVV-Venlo have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table. Jong AZ have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table.

Last 5 matches

VVV-Venlo

Jong AZ

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

VVV-Venlo

3/5

Jong AZ

2/5

Both Teams to Score

VVV-Venlo

3/5

Jong AZ

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

VVV-Venlo

4/5

Jong AZ

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

VVV-Venlo

3/5

Jong AZ

2/5

First Half Result

VVV-Venlo

1/5

Jong AZ

2/5

Correct Score

VVV-Venlo

0/5

Jong AZ

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Dordrecht – VVV-Venlo prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).