Always chasing
7/10De Graafschap conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 48%).
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De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Eerste Divisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
Always chasing
De Graafschap conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 48%).
7/10Conceded first · De Graafschap
Bookmakers: De Graafschap 39% to winRKC Waalwijk 37%
De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk score prediction
Eerste Divisie
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.5 goals in total, a little over the Eerste Divisie average of 3.3.
goals expected
De Graafschap1.7
RKC Waalwijk1.8Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eerste Divisie
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
De Graafschap to win
Our model 39%Bookmakers 39%
Our track record
In 2,098 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 66%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 404 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 65.3%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 1,156 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 57%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 936 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 36%Bookmakers 36%
Our track record
In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
De Graafschap Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
De Graafschap 0–1 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 1,850 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
RKC Waalwijk Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
RKC Waalwijk 0–1 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
De Graafschap–
RKC Waalwijk–Winner
12 76%
BTTS*
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
De Graafschap–RKC Waalwijk–Winner
12 76%
BTTS*
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Full Time
139%
X24%
237%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 16% | 84% | 35% | 65% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 47% | 53% | 73% | 27% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25% | 75% | 53% | 47% |
| 27% | 73% | 55% | 45% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 90% | 10% |
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
133%
X36%
231%
1st Score
145%
X4%
251%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
23%
1-1
22%
X-1
12%
X-X
12%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
5%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.0%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
7.1%
0-1
5.8%
1-0
5.6%
0-2
4.7%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
4.5%
1-3
4.3%
0-0
4.1%
2-3
4.0%
3-2
3.7%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: the stats that stand out
Eerste Divisie
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%De Graafschap: always chasing · RKC Waalwijk: flop as favourites
7/10Flop as favourites
2/7RKC Waalwijk won only 2 of 7 as favourites (league 51%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: attack vs defence
Eerste Divisie
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Eerste Divisie teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- De Graafschap: weak attack, weak defence (1.43 xG, 2.12 xGA a game)
- RKC Waalwijk: weak attack, good defence (1.51 xG, 1.29 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk form and luck check
Eerste Divisie
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Eerste Divisie gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- De GraafschapBookmakers: 39% to win today.−0.1
- RKC WaalwijkBookmakers: 37% to win today.−2.5
Last 5 matches
De GraafschapL
W
D
W
L
RKC WaalwijkD
L
D
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: De Graafschap 9th of 20 · RKC Waalwijk 4th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Eerste Divisie
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Eerste Divisie gamesBTTS = both teams scoredDe Graafschap games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Eerste Divisie average (65%), RKC Waalwijk games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 65%
De Graafschap9 of 10
RKC Waalwijk5 of 10
BTTSleague 64%
De Graafschap8 of 10
RKC Waalwijk7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 372 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk corners, cards and goal times
Eerste Divisie
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameDe Graafschap score early, RKC Waalwijk late
De Graafschap
RKC Waalwijk
4.8
Corners won · league 5.3
5.2
6.3
Corners conceded · league 5.3
4.8
2.5
Cards · league 1.7
1.4
2.0
Opponents' cards · league 1.7
2.1
54%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
37%
15%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
37%
50%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
33%
29%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
13%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
RKC Waalwijk2/5
De Graafschap3/5
Both Teams to Score
RKC Waalwijk3/5
De Graafschap4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
RKC Waalwijk2/5
De Graafschap4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
RKC Waalwijk4/5
De Graafschap4/5
First Half Result
RKC Waalwijk2/5
De Graafschap1/5
Correct Score
RKC Waalwijk1/5
De Graafschap1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction