Hard to break
1/10Lech Poznań conceded first in only 1 of their last 10 (league 46%).
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Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Ekstraklasa - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
Riding their luck
Lech Poznań are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+4points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games. Legia Warszawa are also ahead of their chances: about +4 points.
Bookmakers: Lech Poznań 36% to winLegia Warszawa 38%
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań score prediction
Ekstraklasa
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.8 goals in total, in line with the Ekstraklasa average of 2.8.
goals expected
Legia Warszawa1.4Lech Poznań1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Ekstraklasa
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Legia Warszawa to win
Our model 43%Bookmakers 38%
Our track record
In 3,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 60%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 5,745 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 5,362 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,412 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 37%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 2,008 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Legia Warszawa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Legia Warszawa 0–1 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 2,830 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Lech Poznań Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lech Poznań 0–1 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 2,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Legia Warszawa–
Lech Poznań–Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Legia Warszawa–Lech Poznań–Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
143%
X25%
232%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22% | 78% | 53% | 47% |
| 31% | 69% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
136%
X37%
227%
1st Score
154%
X5%
241%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
28%
2-2
17%
X-1
15%
X-X
14%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
7.9%
1-2
7.6%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.4%
0-1
6.3%
0-0
5.0%
3-1
4.5%
0-2
4.0%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.5%
3-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań: the stats that stand out
Ekstraklasa
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Lech Poznań: hard to break and banker as favourites · Legia Warszawa: always on the scoresheet
1/10Banker as favourites
8/10Lech Poznań won 8 of 10 as favourites (league 46%).
Always on the scoresheet
0/10Legia Warszawa scored in all of their last 10 (league 24% fail to score).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań: attack vs defence
Ekstraklasa
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Ekstraklasa teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Legia Warszawa: weak attack, good defence (1.56 xG, 1.41 xGA a game)
- Lech Poznań: good attack, good defence (1.95 xG, 1.05 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań form and luck check
Ekstraklasa
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Ekstraklasa gamesBoth sides are winning more than their chances suggest
- Legia WarszawaBookmakers: 38% to win today.Clinical · +6 goals+4.0
- Lech PoznańBookmakers: 36% to win today.Clinical · +7 goals+4.1
Last 5 matches
Lech PoznańW
W
W
L
W
Legia WarszawaD
W
W
D
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Legia Warszawa 2nd of 18 · Lech Poznań 1st of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Ekstraklasa
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Ekstraklasa gamesBTTS = both teams scoredLech Poznań games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Ekstraklasa average (54%), Legia Warszawa games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 54%
Legia Warszawa4 of 10
Lech Poznań8 of 10
BTTSleague 60%
Legia Warszawa8 of 10
Lech Poznań7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 304 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznań corners, cards and goal times
Ekstraklasa
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameLegia Warszawa score early
Legia Warszawa
Lech Poznań
4.4
Corners won · league 4.8
6.7
4.0
Corners conceded · league 4.8
4.5
1.1
Cards · league 2.0
1.8
1.6
Opponents' cards · league 2.0
2.5
62%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
52%
19%
Goals after 75' · league 26%
19%
56%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
33%
11%
Conceded after 75' · league 26%
33%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Lech Poznań4/5
Legia Warszawa2/5
Both Teams to Score
Lech Poznań4/5
Legia Warszawa4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Lech Poznań4/5
Legia Warszawa1/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Lech Poznań2/5
Legia Warszawa3/5
First Half Result
Lech Poznań2/5
Legia Warszawa2/5
Correct Score
Lech Poznań0/5
Legia Warszawa2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction