2. Leagues
  3. Ekstraklasa
  4. Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznań

Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznań 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Ekstraklasa - Season 2025/2026 (Round 4)

Smash-and-grab

Piast Gliwice won with fewer chances than Lech Poznań

Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice

1–0

Lech PoznańLech Poznań
1.4Chances (xG)2.5

On these chances Piast Gliwice would usually take 0.8 points and Lech Poznań 2.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Lech Poznań.

Piast Gliwice +2.2 pts vs chancesLech Poznań −2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznań stats: how the match was played

Ekstraklasa

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lech Poznań had more than twice the shots on target

Piast Gliwice

Lech Poznań

3

Shots on target

6

3

Big chances

5

3

Corners

9

1

Yellow cards

2

48%

Possession

52%

The match between Piast Gliwice and Lech Poznań ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Lech Poznań win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Legia Warszawa – Lech Poznań prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznań — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ekstraklasa

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lech Poznań to win

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 3,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,524 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,862 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 4,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Piast Gliwice Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Piast Gliwice 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,697 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Lech Poznań Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lech Poznań 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznań 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Piast Gliwice vs Lech Poznań. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ekstraklasa - Poland
Piast GliwicePiast Gliwice1
Lech PoznańLech Poznań0

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

132%
X28%
240%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Piast Gliwice34%66%68%32%
Lech Poznań28%72%62%38%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Piast Gliwice89%11%97%3%
Lech Poznań85%15%95%5%

1st Half

123%
X44%
233%

1st Score

142%
X8%
249%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

X-X

19%

1-1

18%

X-2

14%

X-1

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.8%

0-1

10.6%

1-0

9.3%

1-2

8.6%

0-0

8.4%

2-1

7.7%

0-2

6.7%

2-2

5.4%

2-0

5.0%

1-3

3.9%

0-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Legia Warszawa – Lech Poznań prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Recommended Partners

Live Football Scores