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Lechia Gdańsk vs Jagiellonia Białystok 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Ekstraklasa - Season 2025/2026 (Round 24)

Fair result
Lechia GdańskLechia Gdańsk

3–0

Jagiellonia BiałystokJagiellonia Białystok
1.3Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Lechia Gdańsk would usually take 1.6 points and Jagiellonia Białystok 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Lechia Gdańsk.

Lechia Gdańsk +1.4 pts vs chancesJagiellonia Białystok −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lechia Gdańsk vs Jagiellonia Białystok stats: how the match was played

Ekstraklasa

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lechia Gdańsk had more than twice the shots on target

Lechia Gdańsk

Jagiellonia Białystok

7

Shots on target

2

4

Big chances

0

2

Corners

9

1

Yellow cards

2

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Lechia Gdańsk and Jagiellonia Białystok ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Lechia Gdańsk win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Jagiellonia Białystok – Wisła Płock prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

Lechia Gdańsk vs Jagiellonia Białystok — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ekstraklasa

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lechia Gdańsk to win

Correct
Our model 41%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,690 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,952 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 40%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Lechia Gdańsk Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lechia Gdańsk 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,462 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Jagiellonia Białystok Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Jagiellonia Białystok 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,653 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lechia Gdańsk vs Jagiellonia Białystok 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lechia Gdańsk vs Jagiellonia Białystok. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ekstraklasa - Poland
Lechia GdańskLechia Gdańsk3
Jagiellonia BiałystokJagiellonia Białystok0

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

141%
X25%
234%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%43%57%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT56%44%80%20%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Lechia Gdańsk25%75%57%43%
Jagiellonia Białystok30%70%61%39%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Lechia Gdańsk81%19%93%7%
Jagiellonia Białystok84%16%94%6%

1st Half

131%
X40%
229%

1st Score

149%
X6%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

20%

X-X

15%

X-1

13%

X-2

12%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

11.4%

2-1

8.9%

1-0

8.1%

1-2

8.0%

0-1

7.2%

2-2

6.4%

2-0

6.0%

0-0

5.6%

0-2

5.0%

3-1

4.5%

1-3

3.7%

3-2

3.2%

3-0

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Jagiellonia Białystok – Wisła Płock prediction & betting tips (Oct 25, 2026).

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