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Raków Częstochowa vs Katowice

Raków Częstochowa vs Katowice 1-4 Score & Prediction Review

Ekstraklasa - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Fair result

Raków Częstochowa

1–4

Katowice

1.6Chances (xG)3.0

On these chances Raków Częstochowa would usually take 0.7 points and Katowice 2.2; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Raków Częstochowa.

Raków Częstochowa −0.7 pts vs chancesKatowice +0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Raków Częstochowa vs Katowice stats: how the match was played

Ekstraklasa

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Katowice had more than twice the shots on target

Raków Częstochowa

Katowice

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Raków Częstochowa and Katowice ended 1-4. Our AI model predicted a Raków Częstochowa win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Raków Częstochowa vs Katowice — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ekstraklasa

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Raków Częstochowa to win

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,508 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 65%

Our track record

In 5,328 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 65%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 42%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 6,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Raków Częstochowa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,822 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Katowice Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Katowice 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 68%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,276 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Raków Częstochowa vs Katowice 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Raków Częstochowa vs Katowice. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ekstraklasa - Poland

Raków Częstochowa1

Katowice4

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

· FT

Ekstraklasa - Poland

Raków Częstochowa1

Katowice4

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

148%

X25%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%	55%	45%	79%	21%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	42%	58%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	55%	45%	79%	21%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	20%	80%	49%	51%	75%	25%	90%	10%
	35%	65%	68%	32%	88%	12%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	20%	80%	49%	51%
	35%	65%	68%	32%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	75%	25%	90%	10%
	88%	12%	96%	4%

1st Half

135%

X42%

223%

1st Score

154%

X5%

240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-1

17%

X-X

16%

2-2

16%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.7%

2-1

10.0%

1-0

8.3%

2-0

7.1%

1-2

6.7%

2-2

6.3%

0-1

6.0%

0-0

5.5%

3-1

5.2%

3-0

4.1%

3-2

3.5%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Raków Częstochowa vs Katowice — Recent Form

Katowice have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. Raków Częstochowa have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 18th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Katowice

Raków Częstochowa

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Raków Częstochowa

2/5

Katowice

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Raków Częstochowa

5/5

Katowice

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Raków Częstochowa

5/5

Katowice

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Raków Częstochowa

2/5

Katowice

3/5

First Half Result

Raków Częstochowa

2/5

Katowice

3/5

Correct Score

Raków Częstochowa

0/5

Katowice

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction