Getafe vs Lugano 2-5 Score & Prediction Review

Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)

Smash-and-grab

Lugano won with less than half the chances

Getafe

2–5

Lugano

2.7Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Getafe would usually take 2.2 points and Lugano 0.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Getafe.

Getafe −2.2 pts vs chancesLugano +2.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Getafe vs Lugano stats: how the match was played

Europa Conference League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Getafe

Lugano

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Getafe and Lugano ended 2-5. Our AI model correctly predicted an Lugano win with 55% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Getafe vs Lugano — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa Conference League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Getafe to win.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 28%

Our track record

Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,721 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,153 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 76%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano ahead at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 20%

Our track record

In 2,276 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Getafe Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Getafe 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 80%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 397 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.1% of the time (bookmakers said 80.3%).

Lugano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lugano 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,019 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 59.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Getafe vs Lugano 2-5 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Getafe vs Lugano. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

Getafe2

Lugano5

Winner

2 55%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

Europa Conference League - Europe

Getafe2

Lugano5

Winner

2 55%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

120%

X25%

255%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	30%	70%	55%	45%	66%	34%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	30%	70%	55%	45%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	48%	52%	80%	20%	94%	6%	99%	1%
	22%	78%	53%	47%	77%	23%	91%	9%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	48%	52%	80%	20%
	22%	78%	53%	47%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	94%	6%	99%	1%
	77%	23%	91%	9%

1st Half

115%

X41%

243%

1st Score

127%

X9%

264%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

39%

X-2

20%

X-X

14%

1-1

X-1

1-X

1-2

2-X

2-1

Correct Score

0-1

13.3%

1-1

11.3%

0-2

10.6%

1-2

9.1%

0-0

8.8%

1-0

7.4%

0-3

5.7%

2-1

4.8%

1-3

4.7%

2-2

3.8%

2-0

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Getafe vs Lugano — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Getafe

3/5

Lugano

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Getafe

2/5

Lugano

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Getafe

2/5

Lugano

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Getafe

3/5

Lugano

3/5

First Half Result

Getafe

3/5

Lugano

3/5

Correct Score

Getafe

1/5

Lugano

1/5

correct predictionwrong prediction