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Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Europa Conference League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 3)
Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Europa Conference League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Lugano to win
Our track record
In 2,504 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.2%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 6,544 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 5,368 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 260 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 1,220 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.0% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Lugano 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,909 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Kauno Žalgiris 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,343 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Lugano–
Kauno Žalgiris–Winner
1 50%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Lugano–Kauno Žalgiris–Winner
1 50%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 43% | 57% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21% | 79% | 50% | 50% |
 | 39% | 61% | 69% | 31% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 25% | 89% | 11% |
| 87% | 13% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
28%
2-2
19%
X-1
15%
X-X
13%
X-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.2%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
8.6%
2-0
8.4%
1-2
6.3%
0-1
6.1%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.1%
3-1
5.0%
3-0
4.9%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
LuganoKauno ŽalgirisBoth Teams to Score
LuganoKauno ŽalgirisOver/Under 2.5 Goals
LuganoKauno ŽalgirisOver/Under 3.5 Goals
LuganoKauno ŽalgirisFirst Half Result
LuganoKauno ŽalgirisCorrect Score
LuganoKauno Žalgiris