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Lille vs Aston Villa 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2025/2026 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Fair result
LilleLille

0–1

Aston VillaAston Villa
0.9Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Lille would usually take 1.5 points and Aston Villa 1.1; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Aston Villa.

Lille −1.5 pts vs chancesAston Villa +1.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lille vs Aston Villa stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lille had more than twice the shots on target

Lille

Aston Villa

3

Shots on target

1

2

Big chances

1

3

Corners

2

0

Yellow cards

2

49%

Possession

52%

The match between Lille and Aston Villa ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Lille win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Lille vs Aston Villa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Aston Villa to win.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 28%

Our track record

In 1,066 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,708 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,849 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 3,966 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 43%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 6,687 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Lille Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lille 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Aston Villa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Aston Villa 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 65%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,664 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lille vs Aston Villa 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lille vs Aston Villa. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Europa League - Europe
LilleLille0
Aston VillaAston Villa1

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 58%

Full Time

143%
X25%
232%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%45%55%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT58%42%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Lille25%75%56%44%
Aston Villa32%68%65%35%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Lille80%20%93%7%
Aston Villa86%14%95%5%

1st Half

131%
X43%
227%

1st Score

152%
X6%
242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

2-2

18%

X-1

15%

X-X

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

1-0

9.1%

2-1

9.0%

0-1

7.5%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

6.7%

0-0

5.9%

2-2

5.8%

0-2

4.8%

3-1

4.5%

3-0

3.6%

1-3

3.3%

3-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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