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Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)
Sparta Praha drew despite more chances
Sparta Praha1–1
LillestrømOn these chances Sparta Praha would usually take 2.1 points and Lillestrøm 0.7; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Sparta Praha.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm stats: how the match was played
Europa League
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Sparta Praha had more than twice the shots on target
Sparta Praha
Lillestrøm
8
Shots on target
2
2
Big chances
1
6
Corners
1
3
Yellow cards
2
51%
Possession
49%
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Europa League
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Sparta Praha to win
WrongOur track record
In 1,805 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,707 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Sparta Praha ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,466 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Lillestrøm 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,366 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Sparta Praha1
Lillestrøm1Winner
1 58%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
Sparta Praha1Lillestrøm1Winner
1 58%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 18% | 82% | 39% | 61% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 50% | 50% | 74% | 26% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16% | 84% | 42% | 58% |
| 43% | 57% | 73% | 27% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 33% | 84% | 16% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
43%
X-1
16%
X-X
11%
2-2
11%
X-2
6%
1-X
4%
2-1
4%
2-X
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
9.6%
1-1
9.4%
1-0
8.9%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
6.2%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.3%
2-2
5.3%
0-1
4.9%
0-0
4.3%
3-2
4.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
LillestrømSparta PrahaBoth Teams to Score
LillestrømSparta PrahaOver/Under 2.5 Goals
LillestrømSparta PrahaOver/Under 3.5 Goals
LillestrømSparta PrahaFirst Half Result
LillestrømSparta PrahaCorrect Score
LillestrømSparta Praha