Benfica vs Celtic Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)
Celtic conceded first in 6 of their last 9 (league 47%).
Benfica vs Celtic — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Europa League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Benfica to win
Our track record
In 1,737 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 2,364 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.5%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 1,088 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.8% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 881 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.0% of the time (bookmakers said 60.2%).
Our model’s pick
Benfica ahead at half-time
Our track record
In 4,145 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Benfica 2+ goals
Our track record
In 3,372 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Our model’s pick
Celtic 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,261 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Benfica vs Celtic — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Benfica vs Celtic. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Benfica–
Celtic–Winner
1 60%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 55%
Benfica–Celtic–Winner
1 60%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 55%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 15% | 85% | 34% | 66% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 45% | 55% | 70% | 30% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14% | 86% | 38% | 62% |
 | 42% | 58% | 71% | 29% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 37% | 82% | 18% |
| 89% | 11% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
42%
X-1
18%
2-2
11%
X-X
9%
X-2
6%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
2-1
9.8%
1-1
8.3%
1-0
7.6%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
5.8%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.2%
3-2
4.6%
0-1
4.2%
0-0
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Benfica vs Celtic: the stats that stand out
Europa League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Celtic: always chasing, leaky and always on the scoresheet
6/9
Always chasingCeltic conceded first in 6 of their last 9 (league 47%).
1/9
LeakyCeltic kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 9 (league 28%).
1/9
Always on the scoresheetCeltic failed to score in only 1 of their last 9 (league 28%).
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Benfica vs Celtic: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Europa League
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent games in the Europa LeagueBTTS = both teams scoredCeltic games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Europa League average (54%).
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 171 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Benfica vs Celtic corners, cards and goal times
Europa League
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameCeltic: last 9 with these statsCeltic score early
Benfica
Celtic
–
Corners won · league 4.6
5.8
–
Corners conceded · league 4.6
6.1
–
Cards · league 2.1
1.4
–
Opponents' cards · league 2.1
1.4
–
Goals before half-time · league 50%
67%
–
Goals after 75' · league 19%
13%
–
Conceded before half-time · league 50%
68%
–
Conceded after 75' · league 19%
5%
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
BenficaCelticBoth Teams to Score
BenficaCelticOver/Under 2.5 Goals
BenficaCelticOver/Under 3.5 Goals
BenficaCelticFirst Half Result
BenficaCelticCorrect Score
BenficaCeltic