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Benfica vs Celtic

Benfica vs Celtic 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 2)

Fair result

Benfica

4–1

Celtic

3.1Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Benfica would usually take 2.2 points and Celtic 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Benfica.

Benfica +0.8 pts vs chancesCeltic −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Benfica vs Celtic stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Benfica

Celtic

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

53%

Possession

47%

The match between Benfica and Celtic ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Benfica win with 58% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Celtic – Beşiktaş prediction & betting tips (Nov 5, 2026).

Benfica vs Celtic — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Benfica to win

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,801 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 2,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 1,158 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 260 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.1% than to our 55–60%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Benfica ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 45%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 4,271 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Benfica Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Benfica 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Celtic Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Celtic 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 3,289 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Benfica vs Celtic 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Benfica vs Celtic. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Europa League - Europe

Benfica4

Celtic1

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

· FT

Europa League - Europe

Benfica4

Celtic1

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

2-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Full Time

158%

X20%

222%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	15%	85%	33%	67%	45%	55%	70%	30%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	15%	85%	33%	67%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	45%	55%	70%	30%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	14%	86%	38%	62%	64%	36%	83%	17%
	41%	59%	70%	30%	88%	12%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	14%	86%	38%	62%
	41%	59%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	64%	36%	83%	17%
	88%	12%	96%	4%

1st Half

145%

X32%

223%

1st Score

160%

X3%

237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

17%

2-2

13%

X-X

X-2

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-1

9.9%

1-1

8.3%

2-0

7.7%

1-0

7.3%

3-1

6.6%

2-2

6.0%

1-2

5.6%

3-0

5.6%

3-2

4.5%

0-1

4.1%

0-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Benfica vs Celtic — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Benfica

5/5

Celtic

1/3

Both Teams to Score

Benfica

4/5

Celtic

2/3

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Benfica

4/5

Celtic

3/3

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Benfica

1/5

Celtic

1/3

First Half Result

Benfica

4/5

Celtic

1/3

Correct Score

Benfica

0/5

Celtic

0/3

correct predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Celtic – Beşiktaş prediction & betting tips (Nov 5, 2026).