Home
Leagues
FA Cup
AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

FA Cup - Season 2026/2027 4th Round Qualifying (Qualifying)

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe stats: how the match was played

FA Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Morecambe

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

The match between AFC Rushden & Diamonds and Morecambe ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Morecambe win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · FA Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Morecambe to win

Wrong

Our model 48%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,511 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.2% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,722 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 3,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 2,400 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Morecambe ahead at half-time.

Our model 38%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 1,230 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

AFC Rushden & Diamonds 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 64%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,467 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Morecambe Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Morecambe 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 50%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 1,011 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

FA Cup - England

AFC Rushden & Diamonds2

Morecambe1

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

· FT

FA Cup - England

AFC Rushden & Diamonds2

Morecambe1

Winner

X2 69%

BTTS*

Yes 59%

Correct Score

1-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 51%

Full Time

131%

X21%

248%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	17%	83%	38%	62%	51%	49%	75%	25%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	17%	83%	38%	62%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	51%	49%	75%	25%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	35%	65%	64%	36%	84%	16%	94%	6%
	22%	78%	50%	50%	74%	26%	88%	12%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	35%	65%	64%	36%
	22%	78%	50%	50%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	94%	6%
	74%	26%	88%	12%

1st Half

126%

X38%

236%

1st Score

140%

X5%

255%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

27%

1-1

20%

X-2

15%

X-X

12%

X-1

11%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

9.4%

1-2

8.8%

0-1

7.4%

2-1

7.1%

0-2

7.1%

2-2

5.7%

1-0

5.6%

1-3

5.1%

0-0

4.5%

0-3

4.3%

2-0

4.1%

2-3

3.5%

3-1

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Morecambe — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

1/5

Morecambe

2/2

Both Teams to Score

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

4/5

Morecambe

0/2

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

3/5

Morecambe

1/2

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

4/5

Morecambe

2/2

First Half Result

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

3/5

Morecambe

2/2

Correct Score

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

2/5

Morecambe

0/2

correct predictionwrong prediction