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FA Cup Predictions & Stats

Name: FA Cup Results vs the Closing Odds
Creator: MyGameOdds

Free AI predictions for every upcoming FA Cup match — 1X2, Both Teams to Score, Over/Under goals and Correct Score probabilities.

Predictions updated on 11 October 2026.

FA Cup Predictions by Market

Full-Time Result

53%

Both Teams To Score

45%

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

47%

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

65%

First Half Result

49%

Correct Score

14%

FA Cup current prediction accuracy over the last 100 matches: 1X2 53%, BTTS 45%, Over/Under 2.5 47%, Over/Under 3.5 65%, correct score 14%.

FA Cup stats: goals, BTTS, corners and cards vs other leagues

How this competition ranks among the leagues and cups we cover for goals, chances (xG), corners and cards.

How to read it

last 12 months · 123 matchesrank 1 = highest of 63 competitions

Goals galore

Goals a match

3.26

6th of 63

xG a match

2.89

22nd of 62

Corners a match

Pro · free for now

9.89

23rd of 62

Cards a match

Pro · free for now

3.67

54th of 63

Compare all 63 competitions →

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

We use the league's matches from the last 12 months, without qualifying rounds, and rank it against the 63 leagues and club competitions with 50 or more matches in that time (1 = highest). A label marks a league in the top fifth on goals, home or away wins, draws, cards or corners, or in the bottom fifth on goals. xG is our estimate of each match's chances from its shots.

No upcoming football predictions for FA Cup England

There are currently no upcoming matches scheduled in the FA Cup. Our football predictions for this league will resume as soon as new fixtures are available. Check back shortly for the latest match forecasts and betting insights.

FA Cup Results vs the Odds

Season 2026/2027 and the last 30 days

How often each result has happened in FA Cup this season (thick bar) and in the last 30 days (thin bar), next to what the bookmakers’ closing odds expected. The last 30 days cover fewer matches, so their normal range is wider and big swings there are still normal. This is not our prediction accuracy.

How to read it

what the closing odds expectednormal range: chance alone lands here 19 times in 20gap to the odds, in percentage pointsgap outside the normal rangethick bar: Season · thin bar: 30 days

Result · happened

◀ fewer −15◀ fewer than expected · −15 pts odds expected+15 more ▶+15 pts · more than expected ▶

Verdict

Home wins

136 matches

47.1%

of matches · odds said 46.4%

30 days: 45.8% vs 46.1% (83)

Season (136) · 47.1% vs 46.4%Normal range

Season

+0.7

±7.8Normal range

30 days (83) · 45.8% vs 46.1%Normal range

30 days

−0.3

±9.9Normal range

Draws

136 matches

19.1%

of matches · odds said 21.6%

30 days: 22.9% vs 21.1% (83)

Season (136) · 19.1% vs 21.6%Normal range

Season

−2.5

±6.9Normal range

30 days (83) · 22.9% vs 21.1%Normal range

30 days

+1.8

±8.7Normal range

Away wins

136 matches

33.8%

of matches · odds said 32.0%

30 days: 31.3% vs 32.8% (83)

Season (136) · 33.8% vs 32.0%Normal range

Season

+1.8

±7.4Normal range

30 days (83) · 31.3% vs 32.8%Normal range

30 days

−1.5

±9.4Normal range

Over 2.5 goals

130 matches

64.6%

of matches · odds said 60.7%

30 days: 66.2% vs 60.9% (77)

Season (130) · 64.6% vs 60.7%Normal range

Season

+3.9

±8.3Normal range

30 days (77) · 66.2% vs 60.9%Normal range

30 days

+5.3

±10.8Normal range

Both teams scored

89 matches

60.7%

of matches · odds said 59.4%

30 days: 60.6% vs 59.9% (66)

Season (89) · 60.7% vs 59.4%Normal range

Season

+1.2

±10.1Normal range

30 days (66) · 60.6% vs 59.9%Normal range

30 days

+0.7

±11.7Normal range

Show more markets (6)

Over 3.5 goals

89 matches

37.1%

of matches · odds said 38.4%

30 days: 36.4% vs 39.0% (66)

Season (89) · 37.1% vs 38.4%Normal range

Season

−1.3

±10.0Normal range

30 days (66) · 36.4% vs 39.0%Normal range

30 days

−2.6

±11.6Normal range

Home side ahead at half-time

130 matches

36.2%

of matches · odds said 35.7%

30 days: 37.7% vs 34.9% (77)

Season (130) · 36.2% vs 35.7%Normal range

Season

+0.5

±8.0Normal range

30 days (77) · 37.7% vs 34.9%Normal range

30 days

+2.7

±10.3Normal range

Level at half-time

130 matches

37.7%

of matches · odds said 37.4%

30 days: 33.8% vs 37.6% (77)

Season (130) · 37.7% vs 37.4%Normal range

Season

+0.2

±8.3Normal range

30 days (77) · 33.8% vs 37.6%Normal range

30 days

−3.9

±10.8Normal range

Away side ahead at half-time

130 matches

26.2%

of matches · odds said 26.9%

30 days: 28.6% vs 27.4% (77)

Season (130) · 26.2% vs 26.9%Normal range

Season

−0.7

±7.4Normal range

30 days (77) · 28.6% vs 27.4%Normal range

30 days

+1.1

±9.6Normal range

Home team scored 2+

89 matches

47.2%

of matches · odds said 51.5%

30 days: 50.0% vs 51.6% (66)

Season (89) · 47.2% vs 51.5%Normal range

Season

−4.4

±10.0Normal range

30 days (66) · 50.0% vs 51.6%Normal range

30 days

−1.6

±11.6Normal range

Away team scored 2+

87 matches

37.9%

of matches · odds said 41.2%

30 days: 37.9% vs 41.5% (66)

Season (87) · 37.9% vs 41.2%Normal range

Season

−3.2

±10.0Normal range

30 days (66) · 37.9% vs 41.5%Normal range

30 days

−3.6

±11.5Normal range

Shows what happened, not what comes next. Closing odds from one bookmaker per match, bookmaker margin removed. Updated daily.

Show as a table

FA Cup, season 2026/2027: results vs the closing odds
Result	Period	Matches	Happened	Odds expected	Gap (pts)	Normal range (± pts)	Verdict
Home wins	Season	136	47.1%	46.4%	+0.7	±7.8	Normal range
Home wins	30 days	83	45.8%	46.1%	−0.3	±9.9	Normal range
Draws	Season	136	19.1%	21.6%	−2.5	±6.9	Normal range
Draws	30 days	83	22.9%	21.1%	+1.8	±8.7	Normal range
Away wins	Season	136	33.8%	32.0%	+1.8	±7.4	Normal range
Away wins	30 days	83	31.3%	32.8%	−1.5	±9.4	Normal range
Over 2.5 goals	Season	130	64.6%	60.7%	+3.9	±8.3	Normal range
Over 2.5 goals	30 days	77	66.2%	60.9%	+5.3	±10.8	Normal range
Both teams scored	Season	89	60.7%	59.4%	+1.2	±10.1	Normal range
Both teams scored	30 days	66	60.6%	59.9%	+0.7	±11.7	Normal range
Over 3.5 goals	Season	89	37.1%	38.4%	−1.3	±10.0	Normal range
Over 3.5 goals	30 days	66	36.4%	39.0%	−2.6	±11.6	Normal range
Home side ahead at half-time	Season	130	36.2%	35.7%	+0.5	±8.0	Normal range
Home side ahead at half-time	30 days	77	37.7%	34.9%	+2.7	±10.3	Normal range
Level at half-time	Season	130	37.7%	37.4%	+0.2	±8.3	Normal range
Level at half-time	30 days	77	33.8%	37.6%	−3.9	±10.8	Normal range
Away side ahead at half-time	Season	130	26.2%	26.9%	−0.7	±7.4	Normal range
Away side ahead at half-time	30 days	77	28.6%	27.4%	+1.1	±9.6	Normal range
Home team scored 2+	Season	89	47.2%	51.5%	−4.4	±10.0	Normal range
Home team scored 2+	30 days	66	50.0%	51.6%	−1.6	±11.6	Normal range
Away team scored 2+	Season	87	37.9%	41.2%	−3.2	±10.0	Normal range
Away team scored 2+	30 days	66	37.9%	41.5%	−3.6	±11.5	Normal range

FA Cup last week: smash-and-grab wins and upsets

Smash-and-grab wins (the side with clearly fewer chances won) and upsets (results the closing odds gave under 20%) from the last 7 days.

How to read it

Oct 4–Oct 11 · 5 matches · odds: closing, margin removed

No smash-and-grab wins or upsets in these 5 matches.

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Smash-and-grab: the winner had at least 0.8 less xG than the loser (our xG, from shots). Upset: the result the closing odds gave under 20%, with the bookmaker margin removed. Across our leagues about 6% of matches are smash-and-grab wins and about 5% are upsets.

How we measure →

About FA Cup

The league profile compares FA Cup with the 63 leagues and cups we rank over the last 12 months (rank 1 = highest). Last week lists wins with fewer chances and results the bookmakers gave under 20%.

These statistics represent prediction accuracy based on the last 100 matches in the league. Accuracy reflects how often the model correctly predicted the outcome for each market. Our football predictions are generated using advanced AI techniques combined with historical match data, team form, player availability, tactical trends, and head-to-head records to deliver reliable forecasts. Explore our prediction results tracker for live accuracy across all completed matches, our league accuracy data for competition-level breakdowns, or prediction performance for team-level insights.

The FA Cup is the oldest football competition in the world, dating back to 1871. It's renowned for its tradition and unpredictability, with lower-league teams often causing upsets against their more illustrious opponents. The FA Cup final is one of the most-watched domestic football events globally. The trophy awarded to the FA Cup winners, known as the 'FA Cup Trophy' or 'The Cup,' is one of the most iconic in football.