Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford United 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 Round 3 (Knock Out)
Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford United stats: how the match was played
FA Cup
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Even on chances
Milton Keynes Dons
Oxford United
1.8
Chances (xG)
1.7
7
Shots on target
6
5
Big chances
2
10
Corners
5
1
Yellow cards
0
39%
Possession
61%
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · FA Cup
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Milton Keynes Dons to win
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Oxford United to win.
Our track record
In 112 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 26.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Milton Keynes Dons 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,797 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
Oxford United 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,571 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford United 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Milton Keynes Dons vs Oxford United. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Milton Keynes Dons1
Oxford United1Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Milton Keynes Dons1Oxford United1Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 65%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 29% | 71% | 53% | 47% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 65% | 35% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21% | 79% | 53% | 47% |
 | 44% | 56% | 78% | 22% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 92% | 8% |
| 94% | 6% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
18%
X-X
15%
2-2
11%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
13.2%
1-1
11.7%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
0-0
7.9%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.2%
3-1
5.0%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score