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Everton vs Sunderland

Everton vs Sunderland 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

FA Cup - Season 2025/2026 Round 3 (Knock Out)

Everton vs Sunderland stats: how the match was played

FA Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Even on chances

Everton

Sunderland

1.8

Chances (xG)

1.6

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

45%

Possession

55%

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

The match between Everton and Sunderland ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Everton win at 43% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Everton vs Sunderland — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · FA Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Everton to win

Wrong

Our model 43%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,524 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,361 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 79%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,682 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,294 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Everton Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Everton 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,488 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Sunderland Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sunderland 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 74%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,396 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Everton vs Sunderland 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Everton vs Sunderland. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

FA Cup - England

Everton1

Sunderland1

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

· FT

FA Cup - England

Everton1

Sunderland1

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

143%

X28%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	33%	67%	59%	41%	69%	31%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	33%	67%	59%	41%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	69%	31%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	29%	71%	63%	37%	86%	14%	95%	5%
	39%	61%	74%	26%	92%	8%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	29%	71%	63%	37%
	39%	61%	74%	26%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	86%	14%	95%	5%
	92%	8%	98%	2%

1st Half

131%

X46%

223%

1st Score

151%

X10%

239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

24%

X-X

19%

X-1

16%

2-2

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.8%

1-0

12.8%

0-1

10.1%

0-0

9.9%

2-1

8.5%

2-0

8.2%

1-2

6.6%

0-2

5.1%

2-2

4.3%

3-1

3.7%

3-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score